Home » World » ISW: Russia is seriously preparing for a large-scale offensive – 2024-02-14 19:08:30

ISW: Russia is seriously preparing for a large-scale offensive – 2024-02-14 19:08:30

/ world today news/ The command of the Joint Group of Forces in the area of ​​the Northern Military District is changing tactics, writes the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian troops are trying to minimize the strikes of Ukrainian drones in their near rear – in order to prepare for exiting a positional standoff and moving to active offensive actions, writes in an analytical review ISW.

For this purpose, it is necessary to ensure a concentration of Russian troops sufficient to break through the Ukrainian positions – despite the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces are trying to strike at all concentrations of forces exceeding a battalion.

Trying to make up for a severe shortage of artillery ammunition, the Ukrainians launched drone strikes against small Russian groups of up to two infantry companies and a dozen armored vehicles in an attempt to prevent Russian troops from reaching the front lines of Ukraine’s defenses.

However, the Russian command has restructured its tactics so that the attacks are carried out by mobile infantry groups, supported by armored vehicles, which are located at an “extreme” distance behind the infantry, ISW wrote. This minimizes wastage of both personnel and equipment.

In addition, the widespread use of Russian electronic warfare allows increasingly effective blocking of Ukrainian drone attacks.

“Dazzling” drones in the future will allow several divisions to be concentrated in a separate geographical area, without the Ukrainian Armed Forces detecting such a concentration of forces.

Russian troops must gain real fire superiority over Ukrainian forces to get out of trench warfare. To achieve this, the Russian armed forces are improving their rapid communication capabilities to minimize the time between target detection and engagement.

In this way, ground-based drone launch points will be destroyed, as well as short-range air defense systems that the Ukrainians are trying to bring to the line of combat contact.

The Russian spring offensive, which is being prepared in the zone of the special military operation (this is reported by a number of Western publications, from the French Le Figaro to the American New York Times, citing sources in the intelligence services of their countries), requires improved coordination of Russian artillery and unmanned units, rotation of assault units, improvement of tactical and operational planning on the contact line and in the near rear, the ISW analytical report said.

It is this that will make it possible to organize a positional front in one or several areas of the theater of operations. Russian troops have already proven that they are capable of achieving significant tactical successes during intensive offensive operations: especially at Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region and Avdeyevka in the DPR, ISW experts respectfully note.

Even the commander of the Navy of Ukraine, Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Nezhpapa, in an interview with the American TV channel Sky News, was forced to admit: Russian troops are successfully adapting to Ukrainian operations.

Neizpapa praises Russia not because he respects the enemy, but because of his own selfish motives. The vice admiral again began asking NATO for weapons to strike “legitimate” military targets in Russia.

It is true that the West can already repeatedly convince itself that the Kiev regime actually has the concept of “legality” of attacks on Russian territory: in the last few days, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked the Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse, the processing of a gas condensate plant in Ust – Lye and oil refinery in Yaroslavl.

Neyzhapa continues to suffer that Ukraine cannot receive two British Type 23 frigates, which Britain previously decommissioned due to a shortage of sailors. The frigates were “donated” to the non-existent Kiev fleet.

The Turkish government has announced that it will not allow Britain to transport these ships to the Black Sea, citing Article 19 of the Montreux Convention, which governs the Turkish Straits issue. It was the first time that Turkey firmly rejected NATO’s militarization of the Black Sea.

Interesting information is provided by the American publication Bloomberg, which found that in 2023, Russia imported modern microchips and semiconductors worth more than $2.5 billion without any problems, and in 2023 – no less than another $1.7 billion.

Importers easily managed to circumvent the Western sanctions with which the US and the European Union naively tried to bury the Russian defense industry. Bloomberg gives NATO a resounding slap: half of the semiconductors and integrated circuits imported by Russia are produced in the US and Europe.

China, Iran, Belarus, as well as member states of the CIS and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), are likely to have been actively involved in various schemes to evade Russian sanctions,” ISW wrote in its report.

The Bloomberg investigation did not say whether Western companies violated sanctions or how the advanced technology ended up in Russia.

But the fact remains that the sanctions have not at all undermined Russia’s ability to produce military equipment and advanced weapons, especially drones and cruise missiles. And Ukraine, unfortunately, has been convinced of these possibilities more than once.

Translation: SM

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