Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Russia failed the so-called “big” winter offensive and did not achieve its goals – to completely capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Source: ISW
Details: Military analysts note that Russian, Ukrainian and Western sources noted on April 1 that the winter offensive of Russian troops did not achieve the goal set by the Kremlin – the seizure of territories along the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions before March 31.
Experts also point out that Russian military bloggers are concerned that Russian troops must complete their offensive operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka in order to prepare for the Ukrainian counter-offensives they expect between April 16 and May 9.
Military bloggers highlighted their disappointment that there were no decisive battles during the winter, and noted that Russia would not be able to continue a large-scale offensive operation if it could not keep Bakhmut and Avdiyivka under control over the next weeks.
Experts remind: ISW has long estimated that the Russian winter offensive is unlikely to be successful due to the constant inability of the occupying command to understand the temporal and spatial relationships associated with such a campaign.
The Institute also assessed that Russia would lack the combat power needed to carry out more than one major offensive in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and ongoing conscription campaigns in Russia and the occupied Ukrainian territories may indicate that Russia is preparing for a shortage of reserves.
The report notes that growing speculation regarding changes in the Russian military command likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle the Russian high military command due to a failed winter offensive operation.
Main conclusions of ISW analysts for April 1:
- Russian, Ukrainian and Western sources note that the Russian winter offensive failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goal of capturing all territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before March 31.
- Growing speculation about changes in Russian military command likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle its top military command in the wake of the failure of the winter offensive.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatovo-Kremennaya line.
- However, they did not receive any confirmed successes in Bakhmut and its environs and continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front line.
- In addition, the invaders continued to build defensive structures in the occupied south of Ukraine.
- Russia began its semi-annual conscription on April 1, its biggest conscription since 2016.
- Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under recreation and rehabilitation programs.
- Russian nationalist figures have criticized Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for not continuing efforts to create a Union State between Russia and Belarus since the mid-1990s.
