Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the occupiers are reinforcing the depleted detachments of their warriors with Wagner units for an attack on Avdiivka.
Source: ISW
Details: The ISW review suggests that the Russian military leadership likely brought in a number of highly trained Wagner Group units to advance on Avdiivka to consolidate recent limited tactical gains in the area.
According to military analysts, rumors about the resignation on March 27 of the commander of the Eastern Military District of the Russian Federation, Colonel General Rustam Muradov, caused a restrained and cynical reaction in the Russian information space.
In addition, according to the institute, there are suggestions about the possible dismissal of the commander of the Western Military District, Colonel-General Yevgeny Nikiforov, whose troops are operating along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line in eastern Ukraine.
The report states: ISW cannot confirm rumors of Muradov or Nikiforov being sacked, but it is worth noting that Russian bloggers are discussing potential command sackings related to areas of operation in which Russian troops have failed to achieve significant gains or suffered significant losses.
The Russian authorities and some bloggers have focused on finding and punishing individual commanders for the failures of their troops, and not on researching and resolving problematic issues in Russian command and control, the structure of the armed forces and their deployment patterns, experts add.
The main conclusions of the Institute’s analysts for March 27:
- Rumors about the resignation on March 27 of the commander of the Eastern Group of Forces of Russia (Eastern Military District), Colonel General Rustam Muradov, caused a restrained and cynical reaction in the Russian information space.
- Russian military bloggers also reacted with restraint to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 25 statement about deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, emphasizing that Putin’s messages are aimed at Western rather than domestic Russian audiences.
- The Russian military leadership likely deployed a number of highly trained Wagner units to the Avdiivka offensive to consolidate recent limited tactical gains in the area.
- The occupiers achieved minor successes in the Svatovo region, and also continue ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line.
- They also continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and achieved success within Bakhmut.
- In addition, the invaders continued ground shelling along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line.
- It seems that Russia is increasingly deploying elements of conventional armed forces along the entire front line, including in southern Ukraine.
- The Russian authorities continue to form new volunteer battalions subordinate to irregular formations.
- In Mariupol, Donetsk region, Ukrainian partisans attacked a guileiter of the occupying so-called law enforcement agencies using an improvised explosive device.
