Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains its maximalist goals for Ukraine.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the situation in Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Western, Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an upcoming offensive, supporting ISW’s assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action (MLCOA).
On January 30, NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said there were no indications that Russia was preparing to negotiate for peace and that all indicators pointed to the contrary. Stoltenberg noted that Russia can mobilize up to 200,000 people personnel and continues to acquire weapons and ammunition through increased domestic production and partnerships with authoritarian states such as Iran and North Korea. Stoltenberg stressed that Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his maximalist goals for Ukraine.
The head of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Reserve Council, Ivan Tymochko, said that Russian forces were strengthening their grouping in Donbass as part of the expected offensive, and noted that Russian forces would have to start offensive because of the growing internal pressure to win.
The statements by Stoltenberg and Tymochko support ISW’s previous prediction that Russian forces are creating the conditions to launch an offensive, possibly in the Luhansk region, in the coming months.
Russian military bloggers also continued to point out that the Russian information space is creating the conditions for a Russian offensive and waiting for it. Military bloggers have reinforced a statement made by a Russian Telegram channel that the current pace and nature of Russian operations show that the main forces of the expected offensive and the promised breakthrough are still have not “entered the fray”. This statement suggests that Russian military bloggers believe that Russian forces have not yet activated the elements necessary for a decisive offensive effort.
Russia and Iran continued to make efforts to deepen economic ties.
Iranian state media reported that on January 29, Iran and Russia established direct channels of financial communication between Iranian banks and more than 800 Russian banks.
The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Mohsen Karami, announced that Iranian and Russian banks have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Financial Communications, effective immediately. Karami added that Iranian banks abroad are also included in the memorandum and will be able to exchange standard banking messages with Russian banks.
Iranian officials and state-linked media portrayed the memorandum as a means of circumventing Western sanctions against Iran and Russia and compared the messaging system to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), which serves as the largest financial messaging system in the world.
ISW has already reported on the deepening of economic and military ties between Tehran and Moscow.
Basic extracts:
- Western, Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action (MLCOA).
- Iranian state media reported that on January 29, Iran and Russia established direct financial communication channels between Iranian banks and over 800 Russian banks.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks to recapture lost positions west of Kremenna, while Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations northwest of Svatovo.
- Ukrainian forces continued to strike the concentrations of Russian forces in rear areas in Luhansk region.
- Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the entire front line in the Donetsk region.
- Russian forces continued to make minor territorial gains near Bakhmut.
- Russian forces have not conducted any confirmed ground attacks in Zaporozhye Oblast.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has continued to take measures to professionalize the Russian military as it faces continued pushback against these measures.
- Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to target Crimean Tatars in an attempt to link anti-Russian sentiment to extremist or terrorist activity.
