ISW: North Korea’s military will allow Putin to avoid maneuvering

Press release with speech by North Korean leader Kim Jong-in, photo: Getty Images

The Kremlin is likely to use the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and North Korea to build an anti-Russian force and secure its borders. This will further strengthen Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s commitment to avoid movement as long as possible.

Source: Institute for War Research (ISW)

Details: Ukrainian publications reported on October 15, citing anonymous military intelligence sources, that the Russian 11th Airborne Division (VDV) is forming a “battalion” of 3,000 staffed by North Korean citizens (much more higher than the battalion number).

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Ukrainian intelligence sources estimate that the “battalion” is likely to be involved in Russian defense operations in the Kursk region and that up to 18 North Korean soldiers had deserted from their positions in Bryansk and Kursk regions before the unit was engaged in combat.

ISW cannot independently verify the truth of these reports, but Russian officials notably did not deny them on October 15.

Putin submitted the text of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and North Korea, which both countries signed in June 2024, to the Russian State Duma for ratification on October 14.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed in a comment to the Kremlin publication TASS that the agreement between Russia and North Korea is “unquestionable” in terms of “cooperation in the field of defense and security.”

The Kremlin is likely to use the provisions of the “mutual defense” agreement to provide legal justification for sending North Korean troops to the Russian war zone in response to Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk region.

Recently there were reports of a small group of North Korean soldiers operating near Donetsk.

Key ISW results for October 15:

• The Kremlin is likely to use the recent Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea, signed in June 2024, in part to offset Russia’s military and border security needs, which ‘ further confirmed the commitment of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin to avoid movement as far as possible.
• The Kremlin has decided to respond to recent controversy over its reliance on conscription to stop Ukraine’s offensive on the Kursk region by offering financial incentives to any workers. which are used to protect the state border.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing the Chairman of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, to remain in office despite his retirement age, again showing that Putin prioritizes keeping people loyal to him from his inner circle in leadership positions.
• Russian troops have recently made advances in the Kursk region and near Kupyansk, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• A former Russian Sturma-Z instructor and military blogger has slammed Russian soldiers’ use of the partially encrypted Discord communications platform after the platform was banned in Russia.