ISW: Kremlin is worried about public support for the war in Ukraine ᐉ News from Fakti.bg – World

Patriarch Kirill, head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church (ROC MP), spoke about the ongoing social and ideological divisions in Russian society in a speech on October 31. At the same time, he again made a general justification for the war in Ukraine. Kirill offered his assessment at a meeting of the Presidium Bureau of the World Council of the Russian People, which included ethno-religious conflict, migration and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Kirill painfully said that while the war in Ukraine is the “most pressing threat” to the Russian state, some people in Russian society “prefer to ignore” what is happening on the front lines face and struggle of people living in the nearest Russian border areas to the combat zone. He criticized the Russians who were not willing to “give up their personal comforts” and relied on “frivolous entertainment” to draw them. from the reality of war.

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The rebuke suggests the Kremlin may be growing increasingly concerned about Russia’s public support for the war. Recent opinion polls show that support is growing, although Russian citizens still broadly support Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This is reported in the daily survey of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Studies show that most Russians, especially those who have not personally lost family members in Ukraine, are very indifferent if they are not personally affected.

To make a second wave of movement, the majority of Russians are still opposed.

Cyril also pointed to the growing trend of brutality and cruelty in the Russian army and tried to explain this trend as the emergence of a “pagan” cult.

Russian authorities also identify conflict between ethnic Russians and minority groups as an urgent issue. Kirill identified “migration problems” and ethno-religious tensions as the main internal threats to the Russian state.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev noted on October 31 that Russia must address its migration problems. Medvedev proposed introducing “digital migration profiles” that would allow Russian authorities to stop foreigners at any time. ISW has reported at length on the balance Putin is trying to strike between appeasing his ultra-nationalist pro-war voters, who harbor strong anti-in- migrants, and his practical need to use migrant labor both economically and militarily.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son-hui in Moscow on November 1, pledging North Korea’s support for Russia amid renewed Western reports of North Korean troop numbers which is based in Russia.

Lavrov stressed that Russia and North Korea share “respect and admiration” for their common history and said that Russian-North Korean relations are developing “at an accelerated pace in terms of the quality level of interaction in each range. “

Choe claims that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un instructed North Korea to support Russia’s “holy war” against Ukraine so that Russia wins.

Choe’s reference to the concept of a “holy war” against Ukraine is notable because the Russian Orthodox Church has used parallel language to rhetorically justify Russia’s illegal invasion of the Ukraine as a struggle for existence and civilizations – a struggle in which North Korea has now willingly joined.

Choue’s visit to Moscow comes amid reports that North Korean troops are already stationed in the Kursk region and will soon go into battle with Russian forces. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held a press conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun on October 31. Kursk region and would fight against Ukrainian forces in the “coming days”.

Austin said Russian forces have trained North Korean soldiers to use artillery systems, operate drones and perform basic tactical infantry maneuvers.

North Korean troops are unlikely to provide Russia with a long-term solution to its manpower problems, despite Chou’s comments about Pyongyang’s unwavering commitment to Russia’s military effort. Austin said Russian forces were suffering more than 1,200 casualties per day (or about 36,000 casualties per month), and recent US estimates put Russian recruitment at between 25,000-30,000 new soldiers per month. This means that Russia is only concerned with replacing the current 1:1 front loss ratio.

The 8,000 North Korean troops reported to be preparing to go into battle in the Kursk region represent about a week’s worth of casualties across the front line. North Korea has sent about 12,000 troops to Russia.

It is not yet clear how Russia intends to use North Korean manpower, but the commitment of North Korean troops to the type of offensive offensive operations that Russia is pursuing is very likely to lead to high levels of North Korean casualties.

ISW recently assessed that North Korea likely decided to enter the war on behalf of Russia in order to gain valuable combat experience in modern warfare, but noted that how the Russian command uses North Korean troops in combat will significantly affect the ability of the North Korean forces. internalization and dissemination of combat knowledge.

If North Korean troops face the same levels of casualties as Russian forces, the battle lessons Pyongyang hopes to learn will be undermined, and Kim is unlikely to commit his forces to to face such defeats in the endless battlefield.

The US Department of Defense announced a new allocation of $425 million in military aid to Ukraine on November 1. The new allocation, drawn from the Defense Department’s stockpile, includes Stryker armored personnel carriers (APCs); weapons for the National Advanced Air-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); stinger mobile air defense system (MANPADS) missiles; air-to-ground weapons; HIMARS weapons; 105 mm and 155 mm artillery pieces; tube-launched, optically tracked, guided-by-wire (TOW) missiles; anti-aircraft systems (c-UAS) equipment and weapons; and Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems.

The package also includes small arms and ammunition, medical equipment and other equipment. US-supplied equipment, particularly Stryker armored personnel carriers, could help Ukrainian forces equip or equip new or existing brigades, possibly easing some of the burdens previously announced by Ukrainian officials in equipping new Ukrainian brigades.

In recent days, Ukrainian forces have not made much progress north of Suja in the Kursk region of Russia. Ukraine has also carried out drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, with the Russian defense establishment reporting that 83 drones were downed.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are continuing their offensive operations in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, trying to establish control over key points on the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremenna line. There is also intense fighting in the Donetsk region, especially within the direction of Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces are carrying out attacks during the day, but without significant progress. In the region of Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo, Russian sources claim small movements of their forces, but there is no confirmation from independent sources.

On the Southern Front, in the Zaporozhye region, limited fighting continues, and in the Kherson region, Russian forces are trying to defend strategic positions.

Russian forces have also been carrying out intense missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, with Ukrainian air defenses downing 31 drones in various areas, including Kiev and Odessa. Residential buildings and businesses were damaged, as well as a fire station in Odessa.