These are some of the scenarios painted in a new intelligence analysis.
According to Institute for the study of war (ISW) the West risks the complete collapse of the Ukrainian resistance if economic and military support for Ukraine decreases or disappears.
“A Russian conquest of the whole of Ukraine is by no means impossible”
Should that happen, the road is short for the Russian war machine to waltz over what is left of Ukrainian resistance and conquer all of Ukraine. Then the balance of power in Europe will change drastically.
“A Russian conquest of the whole of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the US cuts off all military aid and Europe follows suit. Such an outcome would bring a damaged but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.”
Read all about the war in Ukraine!
ISW warns against believing that restraint today will save the West, and the United States in particular, from large defense expenditures. The USA has already contributed more than one trillion kroner, but now the political connections in the USA are cracking.
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Military spending will pale in comparison
Russian President Vladimir Putin pictured with the country’s navy chief, Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, during a visit to the frigate “Admiral Kasatonov” at the Arctic port of Severodvinsk on December 11, 2023. Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / AFP
The tug-of-war between the Democrats and Republicans in Congress has prevented new money transfers in the multi-billion class, as President Joe Biden has proposed. If the US fails now, the way could be open for a Russian victory in Ukraine.
According to ISW, the defense expenditure that the US and NATO will then be faced with pales in comparison to the money that has been spent so far on providing the Ukrainians with weapons and ammunition for their freedom struggle.
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To deter and defend against a renewed Russian threat after a full Russian victory in Ukraine, the United States will need to deploy a significant portion of its ground forces to Eastern Europe. The US will also have to station a large number of stealth aircraft in Europe.
Will force the US to make “terrible choices”
“These costs are much higher than most people think. Building and maintaining America’s most advanced aircraft is inherently expensive, but challenges in producing them quickly are likely to force the United States to make a dire choice between keeping enough aircraft in Asia to defend Taiwan and its other Asian allies, and deter or defeat a Russian attack on a NATO ally,” says the new ISW analysis.
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In addition, the United States will have to move a large number of American soldiers to the entire eastern NATO border from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea to deter Russian aggression, and thus be prepared to withstand a Russian attack.
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If Ukraine falls, NATO must build new capacity
The choice, which the USA, the West and Nato are now facing, will therefore have decisive importance for the security policy situation for years to come. If Ukraine has first fallen, and Russian forces are moved even closer to NATO’s doorstep, it is already too late to reverse. Then NATO must prepare for new and even more dangerous scenarios, with the Russians even closer to the rest of Europe.
Today, Ukraine forms a buffer between NATO and Russia. If Ukraine falls, Nato must build new capacity that can deter further aggression and expansionism from the Russian Empire.
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According to ISW, the risk will increase significantly that Russia may attack one or more NATO countries, and these would have more difficulty defending themselves when Russia has already moved further into Europe. This will in turn force the US to send a large part of its army forces to the Baltics.
“The cost of all these defense measures will be astronomical, and will most likely be followed by a period of very high risk when US forces are not properly prepared or positioned to deal with either Russia or China, let alone both, at the same time.”
ISW therefore considers it likely that Russia, if they conquered Ukraine, would deploy an airborne division and a mechanized infantry division in southwestern and northern Belarus. These forces will be able to threaten a mechanized offensive at short notice against one or more NATO countries. The Russians will then have at their disposal at least eight divisions consisting of 21 mechanized tank regiments and brigades, as well as three airborne regiments supported by significant reserves.
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“NATO would not be able to defend itself against such an attack”
Russia would be able to carry out such an attack and still threaten the Baltic states and Finland with the forces already present there and reinforcements they have announced they intend to station along the Finnish border.
Russian ground forces would be supported by a dense network of S-300, S-400 and S-500 long-range air and anti-missile systems with overlapping coverage of the entire front. Nato would not be able to defend itself against such an attack with the forces in Europe, is one of the conclusions.
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In the new report, it is nevertheless assumed that the combined military potential of the US and NATO allies today is much greater than Russia’s, and that there is no reason to doubt the West’s ability to defeat any conceivable Russian military attack. According to new intelligence, the Russian land forces must have been set 15-18 years back in time after hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have either been killed or wounded. In addition, huge amounts of military equipment have been destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
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“It would simply give Russia time and space”
ISW therefore concludes that it would be far more beneficial and cheaper for the US to help Ukraine keep its defense lines where they are today through continuous Western military support, than to leave Ukraine to its own devices and risk military defeat. “Freezing” the conflict is also considered a worse scenario than continuing to help Ukraine stand against Russian forces that are numerically superior.
“It would simply give Russia time and space to prepare for a renewed war to conquer Ukraine and confront NATO. Helping Ukraine regain control of all or most of its territory would be much more beneficial, as it would push Russian forces even further east,” the report said.
“Major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s”
The best option, according to ISW, is to support Ukraine to win a military victory, and then help the country rebuild. In this way, the US and NATO will achieve that Europe’s currently largest and most combat-effective forces are at the forefront of the defense of NATO, whether Ukraine joins the alliance or not.
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Although Russia has suffered major defeats in the form of lost soldiers and equipment, it is expected that over time Russian forces will build up relatively quickly, and in the long term could threaten other countries in Europe.
“Russia could pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s,” ISW warns, pointing out that Putin has put the country’s economy on a war footing, and has ambitions to rebuild Russian forces to the level they were on before the invasion.
2023-12-16 07:00:57
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