Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to put the weight on of supporting operations in Ukraine on ethnic minorities to avoid a general mobilization among Russians may provoke resistance in ethnic enclaves in Russia.
This is stated in the daily overview of the situation in Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On July 18, the Russian Telegram channel “Ribar” published a report on the movement “Nova Tuva” – anti-war organizationmade up of activists from the Tuvan ethnic minority enclave.
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“Ribar” accuses the “Nova Tuva” movement of spreading anti-war propaganda and inciting ethnic strife in the Russian Federation. This report is noteworthy in the context of the recent increase in the formation of volunteer battalions at the regional level in Russia, many of which fall within different ethnic boundaries.
Previous reports about the anti-war group Free Buryatia have highlighted the risk that Putin’s apparent desire at this stage for the brunt of the war to be borne by non-Russians could create internal tensions in those regions.
ISW also previously noted non-ethnic Russian battalions fighting in Ukraine that included troops from Chechnya, South Ossetia, Tuva, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, and others.
The meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defense with the leadership of the Eastern Group of Forces in Ukraine suggests that at this stage of the campaign the Kremlin will not focus on the capture of Slavyansk, but will prioritize attempts to capture of Siversk and Bakhmut.
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Russian forces launched a series of ground attacks east of Siversk and south of Bakhmut.
Russian forces intensified their advance towards Avdiivka and conducted limited ground attacks along the Donetsk-Avdiivka front line.
The Russian authorities continue to integrate the occupied territories into the Russian economy.
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