After four quarters of sustained growth, in the first quarter of 2022 GDP began to decrease again: expressed in chain-linked values with the reference year 2015, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, it fell by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. On a trend basis it grew by 5.8%. This was announced by Istat, specifying that the first quarter had one working day less than the previous quarter and one working day more than the first quarter of 2021.
The key factors
The cyclical variation is the synthesis of an increase in added value in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, of a reduction in that of services and of a stationary nature in industry. On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from the national component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component, explains Istat. The preliminary estimate – specifies Istat – has, as always, a provisional nature.
Variation acquired in 2022 at + 2.2%
The change acquired for 2022 is equal to + 2.2%. This is stated by Istat by disseminating the data relating to the trend of GDP in the first quarter of the year, which as mentioned has returned to decrease on a cyclical basis after four positive quarters. The whole of 2021 was instead characterized by growing quarters: + 0.3% for the first, + 2.7% for the second, + 2.5% for the third and + 0.7% for the fourth. Istat, on the other hand, speaks of a “very sustained” increase in the trend in GDP.
The GDP of others
Unlike the GDP of Germania it grew by 0.2% in the first quarter despite the impact of the war in Ukraine. It is the first estimate released by the Federal Statistical Institute Destatis. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the German economy had recorded a decline of 0.3% cyclically. In Spain GDP grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2022, much less than the 2.2% recorded in the previous three months. The impact of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and the Russian invasion affect the data for the last quarter, explains INE. Compared to the first quarter of 2021, GDP growth is instead 6.4%. Sensitive is the slowdown in economic growth in France. GDP in the first quarter recorded zero growth according to the indications of the statistical institute Insee which previously estimated economic growth of 0.3%. The decline in household consumption weighed on the slowdown. The French GDP in the fourth quarter instead grew by 0.8% (a figure revised by Insee up by 0.1%) after having registered a + 7% for the whole of 2021.
Inflation slows to 6.2% in April
Inflation slows down in April after nine months of acceleration. According to preliminary Istat estimates, the national consumer price index for the entire community (Nic), gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis and of 6.2% on an annual basis. (from + 6.5% of the previous month). The slowdown in inflation on a trend basis is mainly due to the prices of energy goods (whose growth goes from + 50.9% in March to + 42.4%) and is attributable both to the prices of regulated energy (from +94, 6% to + 71.4%) and to those of non-regulated energy sources (from + 36.4% to + 31.7%).
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