(AFP, Jerusalem, 16th) Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran’s drone and missile attacks on the 13th, and continued to fight the Palestinian armed group Hamas in Gaza and sent ground troops into Rafah. But experts say Israel cannot achieve both goals at the same time.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears determined to both retaliate against Iran and continue his fight against Hamas and push into the congested southern Gaza city of Rafah, but he is not he has put a schedule on every surface.
Netanyahu may have to consider preventing retaliation against Iran while protecting Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, as his friend the United States says.
● Can Israel’s response wait?
Analysts told AFP that the Israeli military was already fighting Hamas in Gaza and attacking other Iranian-backed groups in the region, and had no time left to take the initiative to confront it. Tehran.
“Israel cannot attack Rafah and retaliate against Iran at the same time,” said Michael Horowitz, director of security consultancy Le Beck International.
“A decision has to be made,” he said.
Since Iran launched drones and launched missile attacks on the 13th, a series of public statements issued by Israel’s war cabinet meeting has made it almost impossible to clarify Israel’s plans. inside are clearly visible: some hawkish ministers have called for punitive measures against Tehran. they took revenge and immediately launched an offensive against Rafah; others hoped that Israel would be calm.
John Erath, policy director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation based in Washington, said that Israel is not currently facing the threat of another direct attack from Iran Time to consider the next step.
He said that the Israeli leadership could look at options that would not lead to tension with their old enemy Iran and find ways out of the crisis.
The Israeli military has previously stressed that it will respond to Iranian attacks.
● Did this attack affect Rafah’s plan?
Israeli media quoted security sources as saying that the Israeli army planned to begin military operations in the southern Gaza city of Rafah this week, but the Iranian attack disrupted relevant plans.
Sources said that the Israel-Kazakhstan ceasefire talks between the United States, Egypt and Qatar are failing, and that could lead to Israel speeding up the implementation of the Rafah military plan.
Ayras cautioned that trying to predict the timing of an Israeli attack on Rafah based on these developments would only be “speculation”.
What diplomatic risks does Israel face?
Horowitz said that whether it is the case of Iran or Gaza, “diplomatic considerations all affect Israel’s calculations. “
Israel has previously been criticized by the international community for launching a devastating military operation in Gaza, but has regained much international support after Iran attacked it with hundreds of drones and missiles.
A ground offensive against Rafah would easily undo these diplomatic gains; but Horowitz believes that Israel can take advantage of the opportunity now that the world is on its side to take action against Gaza.
He said foreign allies could turn a blind eye to Israel’s attack on Rafah in exchange for “no Israeli response” to Iran, but said this “seems unlikely”.
Public opinion in Israel also appears to be divided.
A poll published today by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem showed that 48% of respondents said they supported retaliation against Iran at all costs, while 52% were against it.
Polls show that even in the face of possible changes in Israel-US relations, 44% of respondents still support the Rafah attack. (Translator: Liu Wenyu/Verification: Cai Jiamin)
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2024-04-17 07:20:03
