Israel’s Response to Iran’s Missile and Drone Attack Raises Concerns of Escalating Regional War

Israel’s Top General Promises Response to Iranian Attack

Uncertain Nature of Israeli Response Fuels Concerns of Escalation

Israel’s top general has affirmed that the country will retaliate against Iran’s recent missile and drone assault, though the specific form of response and the potential implications it may have in intensifying the cycle of violence into a full-scale regional war remain unclear.

US Anticipates Imminent Israeli Counter

US officials have stated that some form of response to Iran’s attack, which involved over 300 missiles and drones, is almost inevitable. However, the Biden administration is still hopeful that Israel’s retaliation will be limited and refrain from targeting Iran’s territory.

Clear Confirmation of Israeli Counterstrike

The chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Lt Gen Herzi Halevi, has provided the strongest confirmation to date that Israel will strike back in response to the attack.

Israel’s Delicate Balancing Act

Israel’s war cabinet, comprising Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, has convened multiple times to navigate the fine line between escalation and deterrence.

International Efforts to Prevent Further Escalation

The White House, through national security spokesperson John Kirby, emphasized that while the US recognizes Israel’s tough regional circumstances, it does not seek broader conflict with Iran and aims to avoid escalation.

Israel Imminent to Showcase a Response that Maintains the Balance

The Israel Defense Forces, during a lengthy meeting, considered various options to demonstrate to Iran that their actions have crossed a red line without triggering an excessively large response. Collaboration with the US in the retaliation seems to be the intended plan, even though the Biden administration has repeatedly stated that it will not participate in an Israeli counterattack.

Explicit Acknowledgment or Covert Operations?

The counterstrike Israel aims to execute may not physically target anything on Iranian soil, with alternative options including a large-scale cyber-attack or focused attacks on proxies or military installations in third-party countries. There is also potential for covert operations carried out by Israeli special forces or intelligence, although the Israeli government would not explicitly acknowledge these actions.

Stakes Rise with Open Attacks on Iranian Sites

While previous incidents such as assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and explosions at sensitive military sites have been attributed to Israel, any overt offensive on Iranian sites or infrastructure may lead to escalated tensions and increase the likelihood of an all-out war.

Response Determined by Caused Casualties and Damages

The damage inflicted by a direct Israeli retaliation, similar to Iran’s attack on Israel, will significantly influence Iran’s next move.

External Diplomatic Efforts to Restrain Israel

Throughout Sunday and Monday, US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken contacted Israel’s Arab neighbors to convey that the US urges Israel to refrain from retaliating against the Iranian attack, emphasizing that the US will play no part in any counterstrike by Israel. International powers, including France, have echoed these sentiments and called for Israeli restraint.

Focus on Isolating Iran and Reinforcing Pressure

Leaders across the globe propose strengthened international efforts to isolate Iran. Suggested measures include convincing regional countries of Iran’s threat, imposing stricter sanctions, and increasing pressure on Iran’s nuclear activities.

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