Will Israel drag the United States into an open regional war?
Fears are increasing about the outbreak of a broader war in the Middle East, after American targeting of groups affiliated with the Al-Nujaba movement in Baghdad, mysterious bombings in the town of Kerman in Iran, and the assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri in Lebanon, in addition to warnings sent by Washington and 11 countries to the Houthi group in Yemen. Which launches almost daily attacks with missiles and aircraft on commercial shipping ships in the Red Sea.
Members of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces sit in a car after a drone attack on the headquarters of the Al-Nujaba militia in Baghdad, January 4 (Reuters)
US Army officials admitted carrying out strikes against Al-Nujaba in Baghdad, on Thursday, in response to US forces being exposed to about 115 attacks carried out by Iraqi factions since last October, while the Iraqi Foreign Ministry expressed its strong condemnation of the attack, and said, “Iraq reserves the right to Taking all measures to deter anyone who tries to harm its security forces.”
Supporters of the Lebanese Hezbollah raise pictures of Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (left), deputy head of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, and deputy leader of Hamas, Saleh Al-Arouri (center), who was killed in an air strike in Beirut, and Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani (dpa)
While Iran accused Israel of involvement in the bombings that occurred near the memorial of Qassem Soleimani, the head of foreign operations in the Revolutionary Guards, on Wednesday, three American officials said that “ISIS or another terrorist group may have committed these attacks.” .
Officials warned that intelligence assessments indicating ISIS involvement are still preliminary and not a final conclusion.
Israel is “innocent” of Kerman
The US administration defended Israel and denied its involvement in the Kerman bombings, Soleimani’s hometown. It also denied Washington’s knowledge of the strike in which Saleh al-Arouri, deputy head of Hamas, was killed in Beirut. At the same time, it expressed concern about “the danger of the war in Gaza spreading to Other fronts.
But American positions did not alleviate widespread anxiety about the possibility of Israel dragging its major ally into an expanded regional war in the East.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller acknowledged growing concern about the spread of the conflict between Israel and Hamas to other fronts.
Mourners carry the coffins of Al-Arouri and Hamas officials who were killed on January 2, 2024 in a raid in the southern suburbs of Beirut (AFP)
American officials insist that parties – whom they did not name – want to turn the Israeli war in Gaza into a “broader conflict” sweeping the Middle East, while analysts point out that Israel would not have assassinated Al-Arouri without believing that it could do so without escalating the conflict on the Lebanese border.
News leaked about instructions issued by the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to Iranian military leaders to follow “strategic patience” and avoid bringing Iran into a direct confrontation with the United States.
Experts fear “miscalculations” or “retaliatory operations” that could lead to an all-out war, despite all parties’ attempts to avoid a more comprehensive conflict.
National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby during a White House press conference on Wednesday evening (EPA)
John Kirby, head of strategic communications at the US National Security Council, denied that Israel was “in any way involved in the recent bombings in Iran,” noting that “the intelligence services do not have any information to support this hypothesis.”
The White House official stressed, during a press conference held on Wednesday evening, that “the United States does not want to see an expansion of the conflict in the region,” but called for “the continuation of the large American military presence in the Middle East.”
Kirby told reporters: “The military force ordered by President Biden in the region was designed to prevent the escalation, expansion, or deepening of the conflict, and we do not want both Israel and Hamas to go beyond that.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant (right) shakes hands with Amos Hochstein, senior advisor to the US President, at the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Defense (dpa)
In the wake of Al-Arouri’s assassination, officials in the Biden administration launched diplomatic contacts with Lebanese officials to calm “anger and contain the escalation.”
US envoy Amos Hochstein is tasked with reaching diplomatic understandings with the Lebanese Hezbollah, despite the threat of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant that “Hochstein’s time is running out with the recurrence of Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel.”
War on 4 fronts
Despite the US administration’s repeated statements that it wants to prevent the war from expanding and rejects its outbreak regionally, the administration appears steadfast in the face of the ongoing escalation on four fronts in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
Experts say that a direct confrontation between the United States and Iran is still less likely, but analysts see opportunities for increased proxy attacks, increasing the risk that a small incident could suddenly turn into an open escalation.
Mona Yacoubian, Vice President of the Middle East Center at the US Institute of Peace, says that a large number of unrest is occurring at the same time, but the war between Hamas and Israel constitutes the central conflict in the region, and there are fears of greater escalation.
Yacoubian believes, in press statements, that “all actors are calculating their actions and the reactions of other parties as a means of preventing the outbreak of a major conflict in the region, but there are no solid guarantees.”
Yacoubian points out that “Hezbollah is not interested in waging a war or direct conflict with Israel, but pressure on it to respond to the Israeli attack may open the door to escalation.”
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah greets his supporters via video link during a ceremony to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani (AP)
Last week, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett published an article in the American Wall Street Journal, demanding that Iran be confronted directly, in conjunction with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s call to “erase Iran from the map and cut off its arms in the region,” accusing President Biden and the Secretary of Defense. “Inability to confront threats in the region.”
Analysts believe that the assassination of Al-Arouri will raise the risks for the Israelis if the mediators’ efforts with Hamas to release the hostages stop or freeze, which may constitute a setback to the arduous negotiations being conducted by American officials such as the Director of the American Intelligence, William Burns, and the Middle East region official in the Security Council, Brett McGurk. And US envoy David Satterfield.
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2024-01-05 21:53:14
