Some time ago, immediately after the signing of the China-brokered peace treaty between Iran and Saudi Arabia, I wrote that many do not understand the scale of what happened. Time passed, and only the lazy did not write that this was the largest US defeat in the international arena in recent times. The fragile balance has come to an end, and it is clear that everything will soon crumble like dominoes, and Israel will be the first to fall.
Most of the non-Israeli public has little understanding of what is happening in this country, in the country where I live. And the situation is getting more and more out of control. A closer look at the events makes it possible to assume with a high degree of probability that war looms on the horizon. And not a Special Military Operation, similar to those that Israel has carried out more than once against Arab terrorism (“Cast Lead” in 2009, “Cloud Pillar” in 2012, “Indestructible Rock” in 2014), but real military operations. Since, as I pointed out above, few people outside Israel (and even in Israel itself) know, let alone understand what is happening, I will try to very briefly explain both the situation and why it causes a feeling of the eve of war.
There are an unthinkable number of parties in Israel. Therefore, no party can gain an absolute majority in elections, giving it the right to form a government. The horror is that even two or three parties cannot win this majority. There are 10 parties in the current Knesset (parliament). After a real Eastern bargaining with shouting, throwing goods, fake slamming the door, the parties negotiated seats in the government. But the nationalist parties entered the government, whose leaders Ben-Gvir and Smotrich oppose the very existence of a Palestinian state and call for the expansion of Israeli territory into the West Bank. But this is not so bad, because it is not very feasible in reality. But the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has firmly decided to change the entire judicial system of Israel is serious.
There are three branches of government in any country: the executive, the legislature and the judiciary. They say that there is also a fourth power – the power of the media. But let’s leave that for now. The legislative branch, the parliament, is elected, the executive branch, ministries are appointed by the winning party or coalition. But we have problems with the judiciary. Israel officially has a Supreme Court. Over time, with the spread of the practice of repealing laws passed by the Knesset as not in accordance with the Basic Laws, the Supreme Court established itself as the Constitutional Court, despite the absence of legislative acts in this area. In fact, the Supreme Court has arrogated to itself the right to single-handedly decide what is good and what is bad.
It is possible that in some other situation this is normal. But given that the Supreme Court is elected by a special commission with certain political views, and the Court itself consists of representatives, by and large, of the left camp, then it is quite natural that its actions come into sharp conflict with such a ruling coalition as the current one. Although what the Supreme Court is doing in the current situation is logical. He simply does not give a swing to the coalition in which: Prime Minister Netanyahu is under investigation (charges of corruption and defrauding public confidence), Minister Ben-Gvir in 2008 he was convicted of incitement to racism and membership in a terrorist organization, Aryeh Deri, guilty of violating public trust and sentenced to 3 months probation and a fine of 10,000 shekels (appointed by Netanyahu as minister of two ministries at once, but, by decision of the Supreme Court, was removed from both posts). This is the reason for Netanyahu’s judicial reform – to deprive the Supreme Court of the opportunity to influence the political processes in the country. But such issues are resolved by negotiations, while Netanyahu sent everything and got what he expected.
Now – why are all these harbingers of war. Netanyahu’s position enjoys neither understanding nor support, which is especially important, abroad. Europe has always hated Netanyahu, but now even Biden, this is an alter ego, protege, mouthpiece Obama covertly subsidizes protests in Israel. In other words, a dead end, because mass protests do not subside, but intensify. It got to the point that the reservists of the elite units of the Israeli army’s special forces refused to go to reservist training as a sign of protest, the defense minister calls for negotiations. By the way, Netanyahu has already removed him from his post for this. But Netanyahu is not going to retreat either, because in this case, the above-mentioned individuals will leave the government, and it will collapse.
The situation in the country is terrible – investors do not come, the outflow of capital from the country begins, high-tech firms move to other countries. Hezbollah has increased pressure, so far only verbal, but its units are located near the northern border of Israel. Hamas also stepped up on the southern border. Netanyahu rushes through the capitals of European states, persuading their leaders to help him in the event of the outbreak of hostilities against Iran. In order not to break up the coalition now and remain in the post of prime minister, Netanyahu has only one way out – to unleash hostilities. But many are in a panic – we, as usual, are left alone. Abroad will not help us!
Now imagine what would happen if another war broke out in the scenario I wrote about. But Israel has nuclear weapons. This is on the one hand. But on the other hand, Iran and Hezbollah have enough missiles to cover the entire country. And the idiot Netanyahu, hoping for help from the United States, betrayed (I can’t say otherwise) Putin. Which, no doubt, could help resolve the issue with Iran. Well, the United States, instead of helping, as usual, threw Israel. So, it seems to me that in the near future – weeks, a couple of months, serious upheavals are possible in the Middle East.
A reasonable question – why should war come out of the above? Yes, because this is the main idea, the main action that unites all forces when the country is in a political impasse. An example is Ukraine. When the main achievement is the opening of a toilet in yellow-black colors and the inability to stop the collapse of the economy, the best idea is to start a war with Russia. For Biden, the war in Ukraine was the only way out to justify the collapse of the country: Afghanistan, black unrest, a million deaths from covid, an open border with Mexico and hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants. Netanyahu will sit in his chair only if he initiates or directs military action.
P. S. I am an Israeli, I am no stranger to bombings and explosions, but I am very interested in how all these Makarevichs, Pugachev-Galkins, Slepakovs and other damn pacifists will behave under bombs. And not only them. All these refugees from Ukraine who came in large numbers, all these talkative Russophobes-pacifists from Russia… And what about joining the Israeli army, defending the country in case of war? Most likely, they will roll on, cursing not only Russia, but also Israel. “Izrailovka”, as they say about us. They hate this country in the same way they hated Russia.
Let’s see.
