The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahudebate between invading Rafahfor which it has the support of the Army and its most radical partners in the Government, or move towards the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabiawhich would help isolate his nemesis, Iranbut it would force him to make concessions on an eventual Palestinian state.
The situation in Israel is very delicate and tense, with numerous factors at play and, furthermore, as the Israeli analyst tells EFE Tamar Hermannalways with the present threat that at any moment one of the parties will incur in an action that could unleash a regional war “with unintended consequences.”
In addition to the “already very complicated equations” at play, including the current round of negotiations between Israel y Hamas to reach a truce, Hermann stresses the importance of “talks with Saudi Arabia and the United States on a regional security agreement”, in addition to the possibility that the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Netanyahu.
For now, the latest reaction of the Israeli prime minister has been to insist on his determination to launch a ground offensive against Rafah.
“We will enter Rafah and eliminate the Hamas battalions there, with or without an agreement”Netanyahu said this Tuesday during a meeting with relatives of kidnapped people and victims of the October 7 attack.
The view from Israel
Two of the most radical partners of the Government, the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, and the Minister of National Security, the Jewish supremacist Itamar Ben Gvirhave made it clear that they will leave the Executive if a truce is reached with Hamas and Rafah, where 1.4 million Gazans are sheltered, is not invaded.
Benny Grantzminister of the War Cabinet, created after the outbreak of the war, was in favor of a truce, but as long as it did not imply the end of the war.
For his part, the head of the opposition, the former prime minister Yair Lapidhas been calling for early elections for months, as have some sectors of society, gathered around the families of the 133 kidnapped by Hamas, who periodically organize protests to prioritize the rescue of their loved ones.
For Hermann, public opinion in general does not support an invasion of Rafah, not out of sympathy with the Palestinians, but out of fear that it could endanger the lives of the hostages.
For all this, he emphasizes that, given the positions of Smotrich and Ben Gvir, if Netanyahu opts for the agreement option, he would have no choice but to announce early elections and look for new political partners.
Possible pact with Saudi Arabia
The researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute highlighted that, with American mediation, the prospects for the agreement with Saudi Arabia have been revived, on the verge of being achieved on the eve of the Hamas attack that left 1,200 dead and began the war in Gaza that has caused more than 34,500 deaths.
According to her, the wave of more than 300 missiles and drones launched by Iran against Israel on April 6 has pressured Saudi Arabia y Jordan to move towards a regional security agreement against Tehran, which disputes regional hegemony with the Saudis.
The pact with Riyadh, says Hermann: “It includes or may include some kind of extended ceasefire, not necessarily the end of the war, but basically the cessation of fighting and some consent by Israel to an agreement towards a Palestinian state in the foreseeable future, but without a date (and ) without a specific roadmap».
The difference from the pre-war negotiations, he argues, is that the Saudis are being more insistent on getting some kind of guarantee from Israel to allow a Palestinian state at some point.
The influence of the United States
Another of the great factors at play in the evolution of the situation is the role of Washington. According to Michael Hannaanalyst International Crisis Groupthe US Government is very concerned that there is a truce agreement because the issue has diminished “the credibility of the United States in the world” and because it “distracts” from other issues, such as the war in Ukraine.
«The United States has an enormous urgency. “He desperately wants this to end and he wants to avoid a regional escalation because this is not just about Gaza, but a possible much broader conflict.”said.
The president of United States, Joe Bidenhas supported Israel’s war from the beginning, by sending weapons and also in the UN Security Council, but as the conflict progressed, criticism also grew over the death of numerous civilians.
Washington has also been pressuring Israel for weeks to prevent an invasion of Rafah and is studying the possibility of vetoing military support for the battalion. Netzah Yehuda of the Israeli Army for alleged human rights violations in the West Bank busy. EFE (I)
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