di Shorsh Surme –
The situation in the Middle East risks further deterioration, leading to a regional conflict, following the Iranian response to the Israeli attack on the embassy in Syria at the beginning of April. The Western powers and beyond call for moderation, which translated means avoiding a reaction from Israel and the USA to the hundreds of drones launched last night mainly on targets in the Golan and the Negev.
Even before the attack, the German airline Lufthansa had suspended flights to and from Tehran, while the Netherlands had closed its embassy in Iran.
The Iranian leadership, primarily Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had on several occasions reported imminent retaliation, following the attack on April 1st which led to the death of senior officers of the Pasdaran, i.e. the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ( IRGC), but also of the countless raids in recent years against Iranian and allied targets in Syria. At the end of March, 52 people were killed in an Israeli attack in Syria, including 28 army soldiers and seven Hezbollah members.
Since October 7, the day of Hamas’s action against Israel, the region has been on the brink of total conflict several times, but the attack on the embassy and its response have brought tension to new levels and the stakes it is probably at its highest point since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza.
Last night’s Iranian attack had been announced and widely expected, so much so that not only had the IRGC announced it, but media such as Bloomberg and the US news portal Axioswho reported that the number one US Central Command (CENTCOM) in the Middle East, General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, was due to visit Israel on Thursday to discuss Tehran’s threat of retaliation with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Khamenei had promised to punish Israel during his Eid prayer sermon, in which he said that “The evil regime has made a mistake and must be punished and will be punished. (…) Consulate and embassy facilities in any existing country are considered to be the territory of that country. When they attack our consulate it means that our territory has been attacked.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz then spoke in both Hebrew and Farsi X to warn Iran that it would respond to any attack, also quoting Khamenei in the post: “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran.”
Subsequently, US President Joe Biden reiterated Washington’s support for Israel in the face of a potential attack by Iran or its proxies in the region, and declared that “As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment for Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say that again: armored,” “We will do everything we can to protect Israel’s security.”
Now we will have to see how the story continues, since it is essential for everyone, except for Netanyahu who is engaged in an internal struggle to maintain power, to defuse the situation. After all, the Iranian attack, however sensational, was deliberately haphazard, with 99% of the slow drones (4 hours to travel a thousand kilometres) intercepted and shot down by the allies over the skies of Iraq.
