Powerful but limited in scope and delayed by a month was Israel’s attack on Iran early Saturday morning in retaliation for the October 1st Iranian missile attack. The first wave of Israeli “precision strikes” targeted around 20 military bases and factories as Tel Aviv appears to have followed Washington’s “advice” to avoid, at least at this stage, bombing oil facilities and nuclear infrastructure Tehran.
Much will depend on Iran’s next move, which has warned of a “proportionate response” while insisting that shelling in the greater Tehran area and other parts of the country had limited impact. Israeli sources said there would be follow-up if Iran insisted on direct conflict. “If the Iranian regime makes the mistake of starting a new round of escalation, we will be obliged to respond,” the Israeli military spokesman said.
A year after Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel and the start of the war in Gaza, rockets are flying from one end to the other on the Middle East chessboard. The entire region has turned into a theater of war operations, from Israel and Lebanon to Iran, and from Yemen in the South to Syria in the North, while dozens of American bases are on alert that could be targeted by Iranian missiles if generalize the conflict.
The new scenario in the Middle East can be outlined in 6 questions and answers:
What were the targets of the Israeli attack and what was the result of the bombing?
Israel’s air attack was carried out with long-range missiles launched from aircraft and took place in three stages. First, radars in Syria and Iraq and Iranian air defense units in western Iran were neutralized, followed by strikes on missile launch bases and drones, then military factories were targeted.
Iran said the targets were military infrastructure in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam, downplayed the outcome and claimed its air defenses repelled the attacks while temporarily closing its airspace. No explosion or fire was reported at Tehran’s central refinery, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported. Within a regime of censorship it is difficult to cross-check information on casualties and the situation inside Iran.
Has Benjamin Netanyahu bowed to pressure from Washington to limit the scope of retaliation against Iran?
With the limited blow to Iran, Netanyahu first of all serves the strategy of Israel, which appears not to want a generalized war but to respond “with words” to the two massive attacks of the Islamic regime.
At the same time, the Netanyahu government shows that it is taking seriously the “friendly suggestions” of US President Joe Biden not to hit Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure now, without, however, ruling out taking further action. In this way, it also satisfies a significant part of the Israeli public opinion while at the same time showing its fist against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
What does it mean that the ball is in Tehran’s court, what will Iran’s response be?
For the Iranian regime, which has the largest missile arsenal in the region, an existential question arises. According to information from the “Washington Post” newspaper, Israel planned the attack in a way that would not cause large human losses and allow Iran to deny that it suffered serious damage to its military infrastructure. Consequently, US officials estimate, the Tehran regime could speak of a “tie”.
On the other hand, the regime will have to show that it remains strong and that it continues to support its proxies in the wider region, given that the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon and Gaza continues. The temptation for a new missile strike against Israel is great and the 85-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei will have the last word.
What were the reactions in the area?
“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia condemns” the Israeli strikes on Iran and reiterates that it “totally rejects the escalation of the conflict in the region” which “threatens the security and stability of the countries and peoples” of the Middle East, the Foreign Ministry said in Riyadh on Saturday morning. In Syria, the state news agency reported that Israel launched an attack from the occupied Golan and through Lebanese airspace against military targets on Syrian soil. A government source said that “Syrian air defenses engaged the enemy missiles and shot down some of them.”
In Iraq, militias close to Tehran claimed responsibility for a drone attack on a “military target” in northern Israel. Drones were also launched from Lebanon against Israel on Saturday morning but were intercepted by Israeli air defenses. In general, the governments of the Persian Gulf states are very concerned about the escalation of the conflict and had assured Tehran that they would not allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, as they did.
How did the international community react?
The White House called the attack “self-defense” by Israel and urged Tehran not to respond. “This should be the end of the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran,” said a US official. The U.S. declared in all directions that it had no involvement in yesterday’s Israeli attack and that it was only informed shortly before it took place.
But many analysts note that after the US sent 100 troops to operate the THAAD anti-aircraft system it has deployed in Israel, the US could find itself drawn into the conflict if Tehran retaliates against yesterday’s attack. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Iran not to respond to the Israeli attack. “Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression. Iran should not respond,” he said.
What did Iran do on October 1 and what preceded it?
On October 1, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles against Israel, almost all of which were intercepted by Israeli air defenses. The attack was Iran’s response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya while he was a guest of the Iranian regime in Tehran in July, as well as the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran’s closest ally abroad, who was assassinated in September in Beirut together with the commander of the elite Iranian Quds Force, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforousan.
In April, Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones in its first direct attack on Israel in response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy building in Damascus that killed three senior Iranian military personnel.
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