Israel – Iran: From shadow war to open conflict – The next steps –

Israel’s strikes on Iran in the early hours of Saturday morning are unknown as to what effect they will have on the already chaotic situation in the Middle East. Analysts from all over the world are making estimates, but no one can put their hand on the fire.

What an analyst in the New York Times reports is typical. “His years shadow war have given way to open conflict – though it’s a manageable conflict, for now”estimates n Ellie Geranmayehwho specializes in Iran at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based think tank.

“Tehran can accept these strikes against military installations, without retaliation that would provoke further Israeli reaction”she adds.

But what will be the next steps between the two countries?

What do analysts expect Israel to do?

• Israel’s clear messages: According to an analysis by Axios, Israel wanted to send clear messages to both Iran and the US with its highly targeted strikes. In essence, Netanyahu proceeded with a limited strike exactly as requested by the US, while on the other hand he communicated through third parties to Tehran that this was his response to the October 1st attacks.
• Will there be another strike? According to analysts there are two versions. The first wants Israel to stop here in case Iran does not proceed with another attack. On the other hand, there are those who believe that nothing can be ruled out and see the possibility of a new strike after the American elections open.
• Can Israel open a new front? This is something that will concern us below. Right now Netanyahu has two fronts open. Both in the North (Hezbollah) and East (Hamas). Will he want to open a new front against Iran? Netanyahu says he is ready for anything, but it is a given that after a year of constant conflict there is wear and tear.

What is Iran expected to do?

• The big dilemma: Iran, on the other hand, could be argued to be divided in two. This is also reflected in his first reaction. As the Guardian reports in its analysis, initially the government chose to emphasize the effectiveness of its anti-aircraft systems and downplay the scale of the damage, internally there is a debate over whether Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty should go unanswered.
• What the two camps stand for: There are those in Iran who want no reaction to avoid a generalized conflict in the region. But there are those who believe that now is the right time to attack Israel.
• The geopolitical balances in the region and the situation of Israel: Those who support the attack on Israel believe that Netanyahu will not be able to deal with all the fronts open to him and that Israel’s defenses have been weakened. At the same time, the fact that many Gulf countries either condemned the attack or did not allow the use of their airspace by Israel (Jordan) strengthens Iran’s position in the region.