In recent days, the low-intensity conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has turned into a high-intensity one. Will this escalation lead to war? Many believe that Israel is hitting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure to prepare the ground for a possible ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
Why Israel is pounding Hezbollah
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the massive strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Beirut are aimed at getting northern Israelis to return to their homes, which they fled because of Hezbollah rockets – but also the risk of being kidnapped by militants. of the Lebanese organization. Many analysts believe that Israel’s goal is to create a dead zone in southern Lebanon along the Israeli border.
Another goal of Israel is to force Hezbollah to stop firing rockets and missiles at it, regardless of whether there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel’s political and military establishment stalwarts believe that with a barrage of strikes, Hezbollah can be forced to retreat north of the Litani River and stop attacks that are distracting Israeli forces from the war in Gaza – and operations in the West Bank.
Others in the Israeli government believe that an agreement on a Gaza ceasefire and the release of the hostages must come before Israel turns to the Lebanese battlefield. Many worry that if Israel deems it has exhausted other military means to force Hezbollah into a cease-fire without a cease-fire in Gaza, it will proceed with a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said he is unlikely to withdraw unless the war in Gaza is stopped first. In fact, he “urged” Israel to invade southern Lebanon.
Does Netanyahu really have a strategy?
As with the operation in Gaza, Netanyahu is criticized for not having a clear strategy in the conflict with Hezbollah either.
It is also unclear how much of Hezbollah’s arsenal Israel has destroyed in recent days. Some argue that the Lebanese Shiite group has a large stockpile of missiles that it has learned to hide, in underground tunnels and elsewhere, during the decades of fighting Israel. Others believe that Hezbollah has taken a major hit to its military infrastructure and arsenal in recent days.
At the same time, it is certain that it has taken a major blow to its manpower and its leadership, both with the booby traps and walkie-talkies that exploded, and with the missile assassinations of its high-ranking officials. This blow to Hezbollah fighters and their communications prevents it from coordinating a large-scale response against Israel.
Yesterday Monday (23/9) was the bloodiest day in Lebanon since the end of the civil war in 1990. The dead are approaching 600 and the injured are thousands while half a million people fled their homes in southern Lebanon.
What if there is a war?
If there is a war between Israel and Hezbollah, you don’t know how long it will last. The war in Gaza is about to complete a year and Hamas has been hit hard but not destroyed. Hezbollah has far better trained fighters and more sophisticated weaponry than Hamas.
Israel’s aggressive actions against Hezbollah are high risk because they could lead to a regional conflict if Iran and its allies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen enter the war.
Iranian President Massoud Pezheskian said yesterday that his country will continue to support Hezbollah as long as the US continues to arm Israel. “It cannot be an external factor arming one side to the teeth and preventing the other side from acquiring the means to defend itself,” he said.
An Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) poll in August found that 67 percent of Jewish Israelis supported a more aggressive response to Hezbollah while 47 percent supported a ground invasion deep into southern Lebanon. These rates are expected to have increased since the last flare-up.
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