Israel-Hezbollah War Looms as Fallout from Gaza Conflict Continues
The possibility of a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia is causing fear and concern on both sides of the border. Many view it as an inevitable consequence of Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza. This potential conflict has the potential to be the most destructive that either side has ever experienced. Israel and Hezbollah have learned lessons from their last war in 2006 and have had four months to prepare for another conflict. However, the United States is actively trying to prevent the situation from escalating further.
Looking back at the 2006 war, it erupted after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed several others in a cross-border raid. Israel responded with a full-scale air and ground offensive, aiming to free the hostages and destroy Hezbollah’s military capabilities. The conflict resulted in significant damage to south Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs, with Hezbollah firing thousands of rockets into northern Israeli communities. The war claimed the lives of around 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers. A United Nations resolution called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and the establishment of a demilitarized zone on Lebanon’s side of the border. However, Hezbollah continues to operate in the border area, while Israel is accused of violating Lebanese airspace and occupying pockets of Lebanese land.
The probability of an Israel-Hezbollah war is a cause for concern. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has described it as a “total disaster,” and efforts are being made by the U.S. and Europe to prevent further escalation. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, was caught off-guard by Hamas’ attack on Israel in October. Since then, there have been daily cross-border strikes between Hezbollah and Israel, with targeted killings of key figures on both sides. While neither side has explicitly threatened to initiate war, tensions are high, and a miscalculation could trigger a wider conflict that would be difficult to control.
Both Hezbollah and the Israeli military have expanded their capabilities since 2006. However, both countries are also more fragile. Lebanon has been grappling with an economic crisis for the past four years, which has severely impacted public institutions, including the army, electrical grid, and health system. The country is also hosting over 1 million Syrian refugees. In late October, Lebanon adopted an emergency plan for a war scenario, projecting the displacement of 1 million Lebanese for 45 days. The government is relying on international organizations for funding, but many groups working in Lebanon are struggling to maintain existing programs. The U.N. refugee agency has provided some support but lacks the funds to handle large numbers of displaced individuals in the event of war.
Israel, on the other hand, is feeling the economic and social strain from the war in Gaza. The conflict is expected to cost over $50 billion, or about 10 percent of national economic activity through the end of 2024. If war breaks out with Lebanon, costs would rise sharply. Despite the desire to avoid war, many believe it is inevitable. Israel has already evacuated 60,000 residents from towns near the border, as Hezbollah’s rockets can reach all of Israel. There is growing domestic support in Israel for war with Hezbollah as a last resort for restoring border security. In Lebanon, there are mixed opinions, with some criticizing Hezbollah for exposing the country to another devastating war while others believe Hezbollah’s arsenal will deter Israel from escalating.
A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely spread to multiple fronts and involve Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. It could also draw the U.S., Israel’s closest ally, deeper into the conflict. Hezbollah possesses a significant arsenal of rockets and missiles, far larger and more accurate than that of Hamas. These guided projectiles have the potential to cause significant damage to critical infrastructure and densely populated areas. Israel, however, has several air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, which intercepts rockets with a high success rate. The country also has a network of bomb shelters, although accessibility remains an issue for some Israelis. Lebanon, on the other hand, lacks a similar network and has limited air defenses.
The situation is precarious, with both sides aware of the devastating consequences of war. However, a miscalculation or escalation could trigger a wider conflict that would be challenging to control. Efforts are being made to prevent further escalation, but diplomatic solutions appear unlikely at this point. The region remains on edge as the threat of war looms, and the international community watches closely to see how events unfold.