Will the escalation of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah lead to a comprehensive confrontation?
The war of attrition between Hezbollah and the Israeli army took a dangerous turn this week, with the latter launching raids deep into Lebanon, raising questions about the possibility of the exchange of fire that has been going on for months turning into a broader confrontation.
In a report by Agence France-Presse, it was stated that despite the bilateral threats to expand the front and the fragility of the field situation, after nearly five months of hostilities, both sides have no interest in igniting a regional conflict, according to analysts.
What about the field situation?
The day after the Hamas movement launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, which surprised its allies and opponents, Hezbollah began targeting Israeli positions from southern Lebanon in support of Gaza and “in support of its resistance.”
The Israeli army responds with air and artillery bombardment, which it says targets the party’s “infrastructure” and the movements of fighters near the border.
With the exception of a raid that targeted a leader of the Hamas movement in the southern suburbs of Beirut, since the beginning of the escalation, Israeli strikes have been limited to border areas or deep into the south. However, on Monday, it affected for the first time the vicinity of the city of Baalbek, Hezbollah’s main stronghold in the east of the country, which is about a hundred kilometers from the border with Israel.
The Israeli army said that it targeted an air defense system belonging to the party, in response to the latter shooting down an Israeli Hermes 450 drone.
Lebanese military expert Hisham Jaber says: “It is true that the Israeli strikes have expanded,” but Hezbollah “has not yet practically struck deep inside Israel, even if Israel bombed” the farthest parts.
Despite its targeting with dozens of missiles of two Israeli bases in northern Israel and the Golan Heights “in response” to the targeting of Baalbek, “Hezbollah” “prefers to continue the ongoing war of attrition with Israel, and is keen not to be the one to start opening a wide front.”
The two sides of the conflict exchange threats to expand the scope of the war.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned this month that his party was capable of targeting southern Israel with missiles, reiterating that only Israel stopping its war in the Gaza Strip would stop the firing from southern Lebanon.
However, on Sunday, Israel warned, through Defense Minister Yoav Galant, that operations against Hezbollah would not stop, even if an agreement was reached in Gaza.
Jaber, a retired brigadier general from the Lebanese army, believes that “Hezbollah has so far dealt according to the jeweler’s scale,” and that “it has only used ten percent of its arsenal, including precision missiles and surface-to-sea missiles.”
On the other hand, Israel is focusing its strikes on “third-level leaders in the party, and those responsible for launching missiles” towards it.
One of the sites bombed by Israeli aircraft in the Baalbek area (AP)
Is there a comprehensive confrontation?
Although the possibility is “unlikely,” “no one can be certain that there is no large-scale war” coming, according to Jaber. He expresses his belief that Hezbollah, as well as its main supporter Tehran, which supplies it with money, weapons and equipment, “does not want a wide war” that would ignite the region.
But any uncalculated strike could confuse the cards.
In Lebanon, ten civilians were killed in one day as a result of Israeli strikes in the middle of this month. In Israel, Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that a missile fired by Hezbollah on Monday at the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights landed near a school bus.
In an article published in the same newspaper on Tuesday, Israeli analyst Avi Iskharov says: “If it seems that the two sides do not really want a comprehensive war, then the exchange of fire” on Monday “shows how fragile the situation is in the north, and how it could easily develop into a comprehensive escalation.” ».
The military analyst at the Walla website, Amir Baht, expresses his belief that “the security reality is far from an uncontrollable escalation.”
He added: “The situation is under control by the two camps, who are walking on tiptoe despite the smell of explosives in the air.”
What about diplomatic solutions?
There is a local and international fear that the exchange of bombing across the border will expand into a wide confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel, which fought a devastating war in the summer of 2006.
Western officials have been visiting Beirut and Tel Aviv for weeks, urging restraint and pushing for diplomatic solutions.
Last month, France conveyed to the two countries an initiative that stipulates, according to a French diplomatic source, the full implementation of International Resolution 1701, which ended a devastating war between the two parties in the summer of 2006, and prohibits any armed deployment in the border region outside the framework of the Lebanese Army forces and the UNIFIL force.
The initiative includes the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters and its allies to a distance of up to 12 kilometers from the border, in exchange for an end to Israeli air violations, in addition to the formation of a quartet committee that includes (France, the United States, Israel, and Lebanon) in order to monitor the cessation of hostilities.
According to a government source, officials in Beirut are studying this initiative, although they place higher hopes on proposals being worked on by American envoys that include a comprehensive plan for the region in the event that the war in Gaza stops.
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2024-02-27 17:53:35
