Israel-Hezbollah conflict ‘could easily spiral out of control’

Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel are rising, but according to director of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) Rob de Wijk, despite the number of victims, there is no talk of an all-out war yet. “But this could go completely the wrong way,” he says in Goedemorgen Nederland on NPO 1.

Massive Israeli bombardments of Hezbollah rocket launchers in Lebanon have killed nearly 500 people, Lebanon reports. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell calls the current situation “dangerous and worrying” and says Israel and Hezbollah are “on the brink of all-out war.”

Total war or not?

According to Rob de Wijk, director of think tank HCSS, this is not yet the case. “Of course it is terrible that there are civilian casualties, but they are trying to prevent it from degenerating into a large-scale ground war. That is something completely different.” He states that all parties, including Iran, the major factor behind Hezbollah, are doing everything they can to prevent a total war and further escalation. “Because no one really has an interest in that.”

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De Wijk says that Israel is currently creating a buffer zone. “To ensure that an attack by Hezbollah on Israel with ground troops cannot take place.” In addition, the bombings, and earlier the beeper attack on Hezbollah members, serve as a deterrent. “That does not mean that it is not a dodgy soup, because it could just as easily get completely out of hand. If someone makes a miscalculation, you will end up in a situation that you may not have wanted.”

Although De Wijk does not believe there is an all-out war, VVD foreign affairs spokesman Eric van der Burg sees that things are “absolutely” escalating. According to him, that is not so strange, because Hezbollah poses a much greater threat to Israel than Hamas. “So it is understandable that Israel wants to prevent Hezbollah from attacking. But we must also always remember that behind both Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran is emphatically present. At the same time, what is happening now could easily get completely out of hand.”

Call Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the citizens of Lebanon in a speech, wanting to convince them that their enemy is not Israel, but Hezbollah, and advised everyone to leave the country as soon as possible.

According to Van der Burg, Netanyahu is saying this to prevent even more civilian casualties and to make positions where Hezbollah is hiding more visible, so that Hezbollah can then be attacked more specifically. “And of course because of public opinion in the world that is increasingly turning against Israel, because of all the civilian casualties that are occurring both in Gaza and now in Lebanon.”

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It is also a strategy to prevent things from escalating any further. “This is how you deter Hezbollah,” says Van der Burg. “What you hope to achieve is that you eliminate a number of strategic targets. While at the same time the real boss behind Hezbollah, Iran, tells Hezbollah: hold back.”

Role of America

De Wijk sees that “exactly the same thing” is happening in Lebanon as previously in Gaza, where Israel is fighting Hamas. “Apparently, a situation has arisen in which the Israeli government is not being slowed down by America. The fact that this is not happening is in itself very special.”

The peace process in the Gaza Strip is “effectively dead,” says De Wijk. “I see the situation very bleakly. I understand that they are trying not to let things escalate completely, but the big question is whether that will work.” According to the HCSS director, Iran wants to “let it escalate, but not too far.” With the aim of re-engaging with America about the nuclear deal that once existed between the two countries, but was swept off the table by Donald Trump – when he was president.

For that reason, Iran hopes that Kamala Harris will win the election in November. If Trump returns to the White House, Iran can kiss goodbye to a new deal. “You see a certain amount of restraint within Iran, not to let it get completely out of hand. But this could go completely wrong.”

Also read:

Van der Burg (VVD): chance of total war increases if we do not support Israel

By: Vick ten Wolde