/ world today news/ Yemen actually declared war on Israel – its army launched a missile attack on the Jewish state, and the country’s authorities (they are often called the Houthis, although in reality they are the authorities of the main part of the half-collapsed country, which also control the capital Sanaa) announced their readiness to send tens of thousands of fighters to aid the Gaza Strip and asked Saudi Arabia and the UAE to let them through their territory.
Both parties, of course, refused; in addition, Saudi air defense shot down Yemeni missiles. This is not surprising – first, Saudi Arabia and the UAE fear the Americans, who threaten to stand up for Israel if any of the Muslim countries try to intervene and stop the bloodbath that Israel has caused in the Gaza Strip. Second, the Saudis and Emiratis have been fighting Yemen for more than ten years, that is, with the same Houthis they did not want to see in power, and the truce was only recently established. So the example of Yemen serves as the best confirmation that the Arab world is divided, afraid of the US and unable to help the Palestinians militarily. But does this mean that Israel, using American support, will be able to continue to carry out its “revenge operation” or rather genocide of the Palestinian population in Gaza until it achieves its goals?
That’s the thing – no. The official goal of Israel is the destruction of Hamas, that is, the liquidation of 40 thousand of its fighters. It is not known how many of them have already died after October 7, but in any case no more than two thousand. At the same time, the total number of victims – mainly from the Israeli bombings – is already approaching ten thousand, the majority of them being women and children. However, the ratio of the number of victims of bombings among military and civilians is not one to five, but much higher – because a significant part of the armed soldiers of Hamas died in the battles that are being fought with the Israeli army, which has already entered the Gaza Strip. Most of Hamas’s fighting forces are hiding in underground tunnels that will not be easy for the Israeli army to even reach. Therefore, Israel’s main bet so far has been on bombing – they should force the Palestinians to flee first to the south of the Gaza Strip and then to Egypt. This is Israel’s second, unofficial but not particularly hidden goal: to clear at least the northern part of the Gaza Strip, where most of the territory’s population lives, of Palestinians. For all this, Israel needs time—and a lot of time.
Both Israeli military and political leaders are talking about many months — military experts are not hired to predict but agree that the operation will take at least six months and most likely more than a year. And at the same time, we are not talking about achieving Israel’s goals, that is, eliminating the entire Hamas army and its political structure. No, the point is simply that even attempting to clear northern Gaza will take a long time – with huge casualties on the part of the Palestinians and significant losses to the Israeli army. And this is in the most favorable case for Israel – if Hezbollah does not open a second front against it in the north.
But even if Hezbollah does not intervene, Israel does not have much time. But Netanyahu suggests he can do whatever he wants in Gaza for many months. The United States won’t stop him, he doesn’t care about other countries, and Israel doesn’t care at all about Palestinian victims. Bombing for a few more months is quite possible, the Americans will supply the shells. Will 30-40 thousand women and children be slaughtered? No problem – “collateral damage”, but it will be possible to destroy several thousand more members of Hamas and part of their leadership. What if the Arab and Muslim world gets outraged and reviles Israel, and Latin American countries start cutting diplomatic relations with it? Well, please, but the “final solution” of the Palestinian issue is getting closer – at least in the northern part of the Gaza Strip.
This is Israel’s position. However, his strategy is not suicidal in the medium-term historical perspective (after all, with his atrocities, he effectively nullified his “immunity” to the Holocaust and gave indulgence to Islamic countries, so that in the future, when they have forces and the United States withdraws, yes do the exact same thing to him), but it won’t work even in the short term. Since Israel does not have a year to operate in Gaza – the way it operates is changing the world situation much faster than Netanyahu and the IDF are moving towards their goals.
Yes, the Arab world is divided and afraid of the United States — and it won’t go to war against Israel now. Yes, the indignation of the Arab street has not yet threatened the stability of the authorities of the Arab countries. Yes, Hezbollah’s entry into the war may be delayed by several months. Yes, Iran will not allow itself to be provoked in order not to expose itself to an American attack (which, by the way, the US itself does not want to inflict).
But an emergency summit of the Arab League will convene at the end of next week – and it cannot get away with empty calls for peace to put pressure on Israel. The position of the USA in the same UN showed that Washington is not ready for any compromise on this issue – yes, officially the Biden administration calls on Israel to observe the “laws of war”, but at the same time it does not want to utter even official words of condemnation of the massacres of civilians. In recent weeks, both the Saudis and other Arab countries have tried to persuade the United States to put pressure on Israel — but to no avail. So once they get together, Arab leaders will have to discuss how to force the US and the West to force Israel to stop. What can the Arabs do? To repeat the ultimatum of October 1973 – then, during the Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur war, the Arab countries imposed an embargo on the supply of oil to Western countries, led by the United States. The war ended a week later and oil prices increased several times.
Of course, threats of intervention by the USSR, the main ally of the Arab countries and a nuclear power, also helped to stop the wars. Now the blow in the form of the oil embargo has not yet been discussed publicly – the oil market is in a different state than half a century ago. However, Iranian leader Khamenei called for an embargo on oil supplies to Israel from Muslim countries. But given that the main suppliers are conventionally Muslim Kazakhstan and semi-Muslim Nigeria, it is possible from them. But even if that had happened, the US would not have left Israel without fuel.
But if the Arab countries at least threaten (that is, give an ultimatum – we warn that we will stop supplies if, for example, in two weeks you do not stop Israel) the West with total energy sanctions, it will be a completely different conversation. The oil and gas market is already in a very dire state after the introduction of sanctions against Russia, and without Arab gas, Europe, which has already given up Russian gas, simply will not survive. Not to mention that prices will also rise in the United States – more than significantly, which will completely deprive Biden (and any candidate of the Democratic Party) of the chances of victory, thus opening the way for Trump to the White House.
Therefore, the United States will not be able to simply ignore the Arab League ultimatum. It will really have to do something about Israel. A command, stopping the supply of arms and ammunition, putting pressure on the “Jewish line”? This is not so important – the main thing is that Israel will lose the main condition for the continuation of the operation in Gaza: the support of the USA.
The Arab League will not issue an ultimatum next week – but every day of Israeli bombardment of Gaza, every day of mass genocide against the Palestinians, brings closer the moment when the Arab countries (and they will be supported by much of the Islamic world) will be forced to resort to the last remaining method of influencing them.USA. And then Israel will find itself in a situation of complete defeat – with an acute internal political crisis, a reputation as a mass murderer, an Islamic world that hates it, and an undisplaced Gaza with an undestroyed Hamas.
And he will have only himself to blame for his defeat – because he backed himself into a corner, thinking that not only could he not enable the Palestinians to create their own state, but commit genocide to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza .
Translation: V. Sergeev
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