/View.info/ At the beginning of 2024, reports appeared that Israel had begun a partial withdrawal of its troops from the Gaza Strip. Perhaps we are facing a recognition of the impasse in which Tel Aviv has found itself in its operation against Hamas. As political scientists say, 2023 has led Tel Aviv to a dead end, a vicious circle. Is there a way out of it?
The escalation in the Gaza Strip in 2023 has become the bloodiest Arab-Israeli conflict since the Yom Kippur War of 1967. During the bombing of the Gaza Strip, according to Palestinian sources, more than 20 thousand people – mostly civilians – have already died. On the Israeli side, the death toll has exceeded 1,200 – this includes both those killed during the Gaza operation and the victims of the Hamas attack on October 7 (where the conflict actually began).
“Many (including myself) have written that such an escalation is inevitable. What leads to the situation is the coming to power in Israel of a right-wing government that refused to negotiate with the Palestinians, and the fragmentation of the Palestinians themselves,” explains international political scientist Elena Suponina. On the other hand, however, the escalation was not expected on such a scale. That is why it is now considered a classic “grey swan”.
For example, it was hard to imagine that the October 7 attack would be such a success for Hamas. “There is a version in the Middle East that even for the Palestinian fighters themselves who carried out this operation, much of it was a surprise. That Israel’s defenses will be so weak that they will be able to take so many hostages,” says Elena Suponina.
“Israel had a hostile attitude towards Palestine and the Palestinian resistance. The Israeli army, as well as the special services, failed to repulse such a powerful blow because they did not expect something like this. Also, their experience in fighting the Palestinians consisted of punitive attacks, which is very different from facing a well-armed group of people,” explains the reasons for the Palestinians’ success, international journalist Abbas Juma.
The unexpected success led to a reaction that was unpredictable in terms of cruelty. The Israeli leadership made an unprecedented decision to launch a full-scale operation in Gaza. Regardless of the losses – both our own and those of others.
“They believe that the attack on October 7 gives them the right to murder and cruelty, that their hands are untied. Israel has consistently emphasized that the laws of morality and international law do not apply to them. The stability of this position is ensured by the United States,” explains Abbas Juma.
And this decision was made not only to demonstratively punish the Palestinians for the October 7 attack. The scale and brutality of the operation in Gaza is a consequence of the weakness of the Israeli leadership. “There is a lack of unity, awareness in decision-making and strategy. About 40 years ago, Israeli leaders acted much more wisely,” says Elena Suponina.
Perhaps the lack of strategic thinking is related to the crisis of the elites, to the need to constantly assemble a coalition of different parties (because there is no other way to form a government in Israel) – it does not matter. The main thing is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saw the most brutal operation in Gaza as a way to consolidate the population and stay in power.
“To eliminate one member of Hamas, a strike is launched that kills hundreds of people. The IDF calls it a “tragedy of war”. In fact, the tragedy of the war is that the Palestinians are dehumanized, that there is a principle of collective responsibility, and that the Palestinians are seen as animals whose head can be cut off, their ears can be cut off and their carcass can be eaten,” says Abbas Juma. However, unprecedented cruelty will only lead to new problems. Above all for Israel.
“The Israeli military is making a mistake by demonstrating the cruelty with which they are conducting the retaliatory campaign,” Elena Suponina is convinced. “Hamas has already stated that the majority of those who attacked Israel on October 7 were those who lost relatives and loved ones as a result of previous clashes with Israel. Violence begets violence and what is happening today will lead to another conflict in the near future. This will be another attack and another massacre,” says Abbas Juma.
Perhaps this is an acceptable loss for Israel. A number of Israeli politicians believe they now have a historic opportunity to deal with Hamas. And get rid of this problem once and for all – and get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza at the same time.
“Hamas is a popular phenomenon and is part of this nation. As long as Palestinians live in Gaza, Hamas will be there. Israel sees the solution to the problem in clearing the Gaza Strip of people. In the formula “A people without a land, a land without a people”, explains Abbas Juma. “However, we are talking about more than 2.5 million Palestinians.
Where to banish them? None of the countries surrounding Israel are ready to accept such a number of refugees. And even if they are distributed by country, it will not solve the problem. The countries surrounding Israel are not the richest or most prosperous. No one needs such a financial burden.”
The result is a vicious cycle. Israel cannot achieve the formula “People without land, land without people” until Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt decide to accept Palestinian refugees – and they refuse to accept. At the same time, Israel cannot stop the military operation in Gaza, because then it would be a death sentence both for the Jewish state and for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally.
That’s why Tel Aviv now acts according to D’Artagnan’s formula – “I fight because I fight.” He will continue to bomb the Gaza Strip as long as he has the chance. And it will be so as long as Americans continue to support Israel. “Essentially, the situation is deadlocked and no solution is expected in the near future,” summarizes Elena Suponina.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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