What is happening with ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas?

Recent developments in ceasefire talks have sparked optimism about progress. According to Barak Ravid, a correspondent at Axios, Israel has proposed a potential deal with Hamas. The deal entails a ceasefire in exchange for the release of hostages and discussions surrounding the restoration of sustainable calm in Gaza.

Hamas has released proof-of-life videos of hostages, potentially increasing domestic pressure on Israel to prioritize their return. Interestingly, the language used – “sustainable calm” – deviates from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s repeated call for “total victory” and appears to mirror a Hamas official’s suggestion for a hudna (a long-term truce).

The talks have witnessed contradictory messaging. While the Qataris, serving as one mediation route, expressed frustration over stalled talks, there has been increased activity in Egyptian-Israeli talks, a forum that has successfully delivered ceasefires in previous conflicts. Hebrew media reported positive progress in talks with the Egyptians, with a senior Israeli official highlighting their positive and focused nature.

The United States, a vocal advocate for a ceasefire agreement, believes a favorable deal is on the table, with the impetus on Hamas to compromise.

As Hamas considers the new Israeli offer, reports suggest that recent Israeli security cabinet meetings have indicated a more “flexible” position. Additionally, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is expected to visit Israel in the coming days to further discuss the negotiation efforts.

What about Israel’s threat to launch an offensive against Rafah?

Israel has presented the prospect of a Rafah operation as an explicit threat to Hamas, asserting that it represents the final opportunity for a ceasefire. In response, Hamas is keenly aware of the strong opposition within the international community against an Israeli offensive in Rafah, particularly in Washington.

Highlighting this opposition, the New York Times reported that the Biden administration was contemplating imposing restrictions on defence exports to Israel in the event of a large-scale Rafah operation.

Israel, specifically its Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, has commented on the operation, stating that its suspension is contingent on reaching a deal and prioritizing the release of hostages. Additionally, Israeli commentators speculate that a renewed openness to talks may be driven by the possibility of arrest warrants being issued by the International Criminal Court against senior Israeli officials.

What’s on the table?

The core aspects of any potential deal remain relatively unchanged. The proposed agreement would emphasize a “humanitarian ceasefire” and revolve around a ceasefire-for-hostages exchange. Hamas would release hostages in return for a ceasefire lasting several weeks and the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

The negotiations have encountered obstacles concerning Hamas’s requirement for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the conflict. Moreover, challenges persist in determining the number of hostages to be released as well as the identity of Palestinian prisoners to be set free.

Initial reports suggest that a smaller number of hostages, specifically 33 sick, elderly, and wounded individuals, might be released. The fate of hostages belonging to other categorized groups, including captive soldiers, remains uncertain.

In a potential conciliatory move, Israel has hinted at further concessions like withdrawing forces responsible for dividing the Gaza Strip and allowing residents to return to the north. Some Israeli security experts are also exploring the notion that closing Hamas arms-smuggling routes from Egypt might align with the long-term objective of dismantling Hamas battalions in Rafah and may necessitate a new agreement entailing Egypt’s cooperation and border monitoring.

Are the talks in good faith?

While skepticism prevails due to positioning and maneuvering by both Israel and Hamas, some progress has been witnessed. The quality of the ongoing talks hinges on the fine details, particularly in determining which Palestinian prisoners will be released.

The dynamics within Hamas remain opaque, as little is revealed regarding the stance of key figures such as Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza. On the contrary, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to face challenges from his far-right coalition partners, variously, including Itamar Ben-Gvir, who remains steadfast in opposition to any deal. However, Netanyahu recently experienced a surge in public support, which may alleviate some of the pressure.

In a discussion with Haaretz, a senior Qatari official blamed both sides for sabotaging the progress whenever they approach a deal.