Israel claims that it prefers a political solution on the border with Lebanon, but “escalating its military pressure (with assassination operations) may lead to a rapid escalation on the northern border, leading to an all-out war between the two sides. Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to impose the combat zone.” This is the summary of what was covered by some Israeli newspapers, which stated: “Israel has escalated its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, through a policy of assassinations, in addition to a relatively widespread bombing of areas in southern Lebanon. In return, Hezbollah intensified its attacks against Israeli targets by Mainly drones and anti-tank missiles. Reports indicate that the two sides are refraining from expanding the fighting into a comprehensive war. However, the Israeli escalation by assassinating military leaders in Hezbollah would accelerate the deterioration into a dangerous escalation, in parallel with the war that Israel is waging in the Gaza Strip.
Greater risks
Tal Lev Ram, a military analyst in the Maariv newspaper, pointed out today, Wednesday, that Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military leaders, Ali Hussein Burji, yesterday, and Wissam al-Taweel, the day before yesterday, expresses “a fundamental change in the policy of exercising Israeli force in Northern Front. He considered that in the wake of the two assassinations of Hezbollah officials, in addition to the assassination of the Hamas leader, Saleh Al-Arouri, in the southern suburb of Beirut, Hezbollah’s stronghold, “one clear conclusion emerges, which is that Israel, for many reasons and interests, is still not interested in a war.” “With full force. But due to the continuing unprecedented situation with the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents from the towns of the north, who have turned into refugees, Israel is now prepared to bear more risks.” He warned that “following the escalation of military pressure, it may lead to a rapid escalation on the northern border, leading to a comprehensive war between the two sides.”
Israel claims that it prefers a political solution, through the withdrawal of Hezbollah Radwan Force fighters from the border, in exchange for making adjustments to the border line and Israel’s withdrawal from places on it, such as the Shebaa Farms, although it has not expressed this publicly. According to Lev Ram, Israel attaches importance in this context to the visit of US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, “as another attempt to reach a solution to the impasse on the Lebanese border.” He added that the assassination of military officials “would push Hezbollah to think that the price of loss that it might pay as a result of a war with full force would be particularly high, and that it would be better for it to find a way to get down from the tree. The only problem with this approach is that it is not certain that Hezbollah Really ready to adopt him.”
Despite the losses incurred by Hezbollah, with the killing of about 150 of its fighters, and the damage to its military infrastructure as a result of the Israeli bombing, “it is not possible to ignore the broad strategic picture in which Hezbollah is taking full advantage of the war in Gaza, in order to impose a military confrontation on Israel.” He initiated it, and he dictates the extent of its strength and the boundaries of the area in which the confrontation takes place on both sides.”
Collect the price
As for the military analyst in the newspaper “Haaretz”, Amos Harel, he referred to the list of assassinations carried out by Israel in the past weeks, adding to it the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Radhi Mousavi, who was assassinated in Damascus, as well as the assassination of a Hamas activist in the Golan Heights in Syria. He added that these assassinations “reflect a clear Israeli attempt to exact a rising price from Hezbollah and its partners on the northern front. The actual result of these operations is that a large portion of Hezbollah forces, including Radwan’s fighters, withdrew from the border area and are conducting operations from the rear lines in anticipation.” From other losses. According to Harel, “Israel is not succeeding at this stage in translating these tactical achievements into a strategic result. On the contrary, Hezbollah insists on continuing daily attacks, and is satisfied with the price it has paid, with about 60,000 Israeli citizens leaving the towns adjacent to the border.”
He stated, “The Israeli security apparatus still claims that Iran and Hezbollah are interested in remaining under the umbrella of the regional war. Despite this, the rapid succession of events and their severity reduces the room for maneuver of all parties. When field tension is high, and a relatively severe event occurs every few hours, there is no Certainty that things will be possible to proceed in a way that does not end in a comprehensive clash.” He continued that, against the backdrop of Blinken’s tour in the region, the United States is trying to stop the escalation between Israel and Hamas and prevent an all-out war, “and there are no indications yet of a possible success of the initiative pushed by the US administration’s envoy to the region, Amos Hockstein, to reach a ceasefire and resume deliberations on… The path of the border line between Israel and Lebanon.
Significant damage
The military analyst in the newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth”, Yossi Yehoshua, also indicated that the Israeli army, with the support of the political level, seeks to remove Radwan’s forces from the border “without deteriorating into an all-out war, which allows the army to continue to maintain Gaza as a central battlefield.” .
According to Yehoshua, “Hezbollah succeeds in causing significant damage to towns (in northern Israel) with anti-tank missiles, and the destruction there is unprecedented, and is sometimes under the radar due to the population’s abandonment of the area. Despite this, the damage to Israel is national, economic, and moral. You can see Through this situation, Hezbollah uses the various tools it has to cause pain on the Israeli home front and not just in the front-line towns.”
He added, “When we look at the fighting in Gaza, against an enemy many times weaker, we must enter into proportionality when talking about ‘cleaning the area’ in southern Lebanon. A mission like this will have a price and will take a time that makes the 95 days of war in Gaza look like a summer camp.” According to Yehoshua, “there is no escape from another solution, which is to remove Hezbollah, but not to the north of the Litani River, and talk of “cleaning the region” is nothing more than a fantasy.”
2024-01-10 10:36:45
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