Israel and “the destruction of Hamas”… Why does the declared goal raise doubts?

Israel’s declared goal of “destroying the Hamas movement” in the Gaza Strip is challenged by doubts raised not only by analysts and observers, but also by officials, most recently the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, and the Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani.

According to Borrell’s words, “Hamas is more than a terrorist organization,” and he said during his participation in the Union for the Mediterranean Forum held in Barcelona that it is “an idea, and it cannot be eliminated except when there is an alternative that gives the Palestinians a clear horizon.”

On the other hand, the Qatari Prime Minister added in a separate statement to the Financial Times that “the Israeli goal of eliminating Hamas in Gaza is not realistic.” He considered that “destroying it by continuing the war will never happen, and will only fuel extremist rhetoric.”

Doubts raise questions about the outcome of the goal set by Israeli officials, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even if it is “truly impossible,” and the considerations that govern the issue.

It also raises, and before that, analyzes by researchers in Western media, questions related to Hamas’s structure in Gaza, and whether the popular voices in the besieged Strip support what it did on October 7, and therefore the role that the opposition will have on its future, whether now or at a later stage. “After the war.”

“Two looks at Israel”

Dalia Scheindlin, an Israeli pollster and political analyst, believes that “public opinion in Israel supports the goal of destroying Hamas, especially since there is nothing in the street but anger” toward the movement.

However, in an interview with Al-Hurra website, she pointed to local people, whether military or political, and that “they are analyzing the conflict and have great doubt about the possibility of any objective measure to completely destroy Hamas in terms of its military and governmental capabilities.”

She adds: “The idea of ​​the destruction of its military capabilities can at least be considered somewhat more measurable in terms of the numbers of fighters killed, senior commanders eliminated, or weapons used or destroyed.”

However, the expert explains that “the idea of ​​destroying it as a ruling force is something that most people doubt, considering that it cannot be fully achieved and given the depth of Hamas’ entrenchment in Palestinian society.”

Ahmed Rafiq Awad, head of the Al-Quds Center for Studies, believes that “Israel’s bet on a coup by the citizens of Gaza against Hamas does not seem correct, because the movement has its loyal audience and supporters.”

Moreover, the unprecedented Israeli attack on Gaza and thousands of civilian casualties “does not make people moderate, but rather leads them to more extremism, which is what Israel lost,” according to Awad.

He told Al-Hurra website: “Israel lost the settlement with the Palestinians. It accused Hamas of destroying the idea of ​​a Palestinian state, but it itself… demolished the idea of ​​a settlement, perhaps forever.”

The writer and political analyst, Majed Azzam, points out that “eliminating Hamas has been discussed since the first day of the war,” and that “Ehud Barak (the former Israeli security minister) previously stressed its difficulty by saying that Hamas resides in the mind and heart.”

Over the past few days, Azzam explains to Al-Hurra website that “Israel has changed its rhetoric and is now talking about “eliminating Hamas in the military and authoritarian sense.”

He adds, “meaning the destruction of authoritarian buildings and the assassination of leaders,” and that “the change in rhetoric came as a clear expression of the impossibility of eliminating Hamas as a movement.”

The tone of threat and decisiveness on the part of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not change despite the calm imposed by the armistice agreement, as he said on Sunday that he told US President Joe Biden that Israel will return with all its might to achieve the goal of eliminating Hamas, as soon as the current hostage exchange agreement ends.

He added in an interview with the media that “Israel’s goal is to ensure that Gaza does not return to what it was, and to release all the abductees.”
He revealed that he supports a proposal to hand over 10 kidnapped persons to Hamas in exchange for every additional day of truce, considering that this is the manner agreed upon under the original agreement, which was mediated by Qatar.

“The government is a hostage of commitment”

Before the three-day truce, the Israeli army had entered Gaza City and areas in the northern Gaza Strip, and announced “operational control” over several sites, including Hamas government institutions.

The threat continues at the present time, despite the cessation of bombing and military operations towards areas south of the Gaza Strip, a mission that observers previously considered “will represent the most difficult stages.”

The public in Israel currently wants “the return of the prisoners and at the same time victory in the war,” and Akiva Eldar, a columnist for the Haaretz newspaper, says, “The government promised to destroy Hamas and is now a hostage of its obligations.”

Eldar does not see any signs of a political solution to achieve this goal, and in an interview with Al-Hurra website, he believes that “this option must come from Washington.”

The Palestinian researcher, Azzam, explains that “the voices that confirm that it is impossible to eliminate Hamas are currently being used as an entry point to go to a political solution,” but the Israeli government does not want to proceed with the peaceful option.

Azzam adds: “Netanyahu is boasting that he will win the war and prevent a Palestinian state, but there is pressure that the temporal and political window for the war is linked to the option of the next day and a return to the political process and the two-state solution, as it is the only solution to the conflict from its roots, and to prevent any explosion attempts in the future.”

‘Serious internal conflict’

In a report last week, the British newspaper “Financial Times” opined that “the lack of a clear plan for how to manage Gaza if Hamas is overthrown means that Israeli forces may end up deployed in the Strip for a long period after the fighting ends.”

The newspaper asked a “bigger question”: whether it is possible to destroy a group that has been deeply rooted in the fabric of the enclave for 16 years, and represents an ideology as much as a political and military entity, in reference to Hamas.

Opinion poll expert Sheindlin believes that Hamas does indeed represent an ideology, but with political and military capacity at the same time. She says: “The population that supports it over the years is often more religious Muslims.”

At the same time, the expert believes that “many people support her largely as an opponent of Fatah,” and since “her ideology is not only related to political Islam, but also to the idea that the best strategy in terms of dealing with Israel is the military strategy,” Sheindlin explains that this “It is something that many Palestinians support.”

She adds: “Anecdotally I hear fairly widely from Palestinians, including from Gazans, that there was a lot of dissatisfaction with it before and after the war.”

It is extremely difficult to track the voting process in light of the severe and forced displacement in the Gaza Strip. However, Scheindlin expects that “Hamas will face a serious internal conflict at some point.”

On the other hand, she points out that “it is not known what the Hamas leadership will look like when the intensity of hostilities decreases. It may be largely incapable by that time,” as she puts it.

“Conviction and a settled goal”

For three days, Hamas has been working to implement the terms of the truce deal it reached with Israel through Qatari mediation, and the four days are scheduled to be extended to two additional days, according to what Doha announced on Monday night.

It is not known whether the extension process will be carried out in the coming days, especially since the movement has many civilian hostages and other military prisoners.

Awad believes that “Hamas will become to many of the Palestinian people that it did what no one did,” and that it “was able to put Israel to its limits.”

Like any other people, the head of the “Jerusalem Center for Studies” says that “the Palestinians are divided over any idea,” and while he sees Hamas as such, he adds that “it does not die and may appear elsewhere.”

Awad believes that “the ongoing truce amounts to practical recognition of Hamas, and constitutes a concession on the part of Israel of its loyalties with which it began the war.”

Although “the movement may be weak” at a later stage, Awad continues: “It may request political partnership and integrate into the Palestinian house in order to get rid of the accusation of terrorism. It is part of the current and future Palestinian scene and no one can delete it.”

But the Israeli political analyst, Golan Barhoum, believes that “Israel’s acceptance of the truce does not come from a place of weakness, but rather out of strength,” explaining by saying: “There are great achievements on the ground. We struck and destroyed tunnels and eliminated some of Hamas’s leaders.”

He also added to Al-Hurra website: “There is progress on the ground, and the Israeli army will continue to completely cleanse the Gaza Strip of any Hamas presence,” as he put it.

There are Israeli voices confirming the existence of opposition to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which researcher Azzam considers “true since it is a political movement,” but he explains, on the other hand, that the same voices “say that there must be a return to the political process and that weakening Hamas can also be achieved through it, and that there is room for a return to the path.” The politician will encourage voices opposing Hamas to present other options.”

But in general, and in the words of the Palestinian researcher, “There is a conviction in the impossibility of eliminating Hamas as a movement and saying: Whoever wants to weaken Hamas should go to the political solution, the two-state solution, and the establishment of the Palestinian state.”

For his part, Israeli political analyst Barhoum confirms that the Israeli army’s military operation will not stop, and that “the hostage agreement will not hinder what has been achieved and succeeded on the ground.”

He says: “Accepting the hostage deal is because they constitute a matter of life or death for Israel,” and that they “require an urgent decision,” while he does not rule out that “there will be room for additional deals in the next stage.”