Israel and Lebanon: Attrition without war…or war without victory

It is clear that Hezbollah has succeeded in its new military tactic, which it has been following in the south for days. The party is working to intensify its military and qualitative operations against Israeli sites, in exchange for avoiding any casualties. Unlike how it was before.

Operations level
Militarily, there may be many explanations for this, including the party’s launching of medium-range missiles, which does not require its fighters to advance in a “martyrdom” manner to the border strip to carry out operations. Also, the party’s escalation is no longer hidden, while the Israeli responses from a week ago to this day do not appear to be on par with the party’s strikes… leading to an increase in the level of daily operations by it, which has now exceeded 13 operations, while adopting the method of targeting the same site twice or more, and with missiles. Volcano quality. These operations reached the point of completely destroying the Pranit military barracks. It is the headquarters of the Galilee Command in the Israeli army. This strike must institute further change in the rules of engagement, amidst Israel being exposed to many pressures, militarily due to the party’s strikes, and politically due to internal disputes and American pressure to prevent escalation.

An existential threat
In light of these facts, there is a deep existential threat facing the Israelis, whether in the Gaza Strip as a result of the fierce confrontation waged by the Palestinian resistance, or in Lebanon, where the Israelis will not be able to deal with Hezbollah in light of its escalating operations, which push settlement residents not to return. To the northern regions.

All of this makes it difficult to anticipate how to find a political or diplomatic solution to this “impasse” and threat, while the Israelis continue their military operations in the Gaza Strip, without any clear direction for the military objectives, and without any indications about achieving the goal of “breaking the Hamas movement” or ending it.

In light of the continued work of the Israeli military machine, the question remains about the possibility of the resistance forces entering the conflict line further, or rather Iran making a clear decision to go to war in support of Gaza, in contrast to the positions expressed by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, about the interaction and expansion of the fronts through unilateral decisions it takes. Resistance forces in the region. This indicates that Iran does not want to get involved in the conflict, but its allies will continue the preoccupation and pressure operations, while Israel continues its military operations, without adjusting the balance of power at the regional level, so far.

Borders of Lebanon
The research is focused on how to find a gain for Israel that it calls a victory, perhaps without breaking Hamas militarily or eliminating it. Moreover, this gain-victory does not allow it to turn towards the north and wage war in Lebanon in response to Hezbollah’s operations. Rather, work is being done to find appropriate formulas to return the residents of the northern settlements.

Without such a formula being crystallized, a state of military exhaustion may continue. The most challenging challenge facing the Israelis is how to deal with Hezbollah and the threats it poses. The alternative to a wide war will most likely be political negotiations at a major international level, leading to producing an agreement that absorbs Israeli anger, with new arrangements or plans that guarantee security and stability, as long as no one wants to expand the horizon of the conflict and go to a wide war.