Israel and the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip are close to reaching an agreement that would release most of the Israeli women and children who were kidnapped in the October 7 attack.
Despite the absence of any official comment resolving the latest developments in the “thorny” issue, senior officials point to “general outlines of the deal that have become clear and specific.”
On Tuesday, Washington Post opinion writer David Ignatius quoted a high-ranking Israeli official as saying that “the agreement may be announced within days, as the final details have been resolved,” and calls for the release of Israeli women and children in groups.
At the same time, Palestinian women and youth detained in Israeli prisons will be released, and the official continued, “The hostage and prisoner exchange deal is expected to be accompanied by a temporary ceasefire, perhaps for a period of five days. This truce would allow safe travel for Israeli prisoners.”
The revelation that an agreement was close to being reached came after the Israeli army announced the entry of its ground forces into Gaza City, and following Hamas’ announcement that it had informed mediators of its readiness to release about 70 children and women during a five-day truce.
Between these two events, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said in a remarkable statement on Monday: “We have two or three weeks before international pressure (on Israel) grows in an actual way, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is striving to expand the margin of legitimacy, and the battles will continue as long as necessary.” .
Cohen’s statements were preceded by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement, in an interview with the American network NBC, on Sunday, that there is a possibility of reaching an agreement to release the hostages, while he added, adding: “The less I talk about this issue, the greater the chances of it being achieved.” .
“The price will be high”
The Hamas hostage issue is one of two that Israel has set as primary goals in its ongoing war in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, and the second has been defined as “to completely dismantle and eliminate the movement.”
The Israeli army estimates that about 240 people have been taken hostage in the Gaza Strip, including at least 30 minors, according to Israeli media.
It is not yet known exactly what number the expected deal will include.
According to the Washington Post, Israel wants to release all 100 women and children taken from Israel, but the initial number is likely to be lower.
He noted that the number of Palestinian women and youth who might be released is unclear, but an Arab official told the opinion writer last week that there are at least 120 in prison.
For its part, Reuters quoted, on Monday, the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, as saying that Qatari mediators made efforts to release women and children hostage by Hamas, in exchange for the release of 200 Palestinian children and 75 Palestinian women, the total number of detainees to date. Date of November 11 of women and children in Israel.
Israeli political analyst Yoav Stern believes that “negotiations have been taking place for several weeks, but they have not yet reached an end regarding the hostage issue.”
Stern told Al-Hurra website: “There are some stories about the price. They talk about 80 kidnappers and a 3-day truce, and there is talk of 100 kidnappers.”
Officials in Israel refuse to address this issue, and only indicate that there are negotiations, without addressing the content.
The Israeli analyst adds: “This is true, but the details are not final, and there are families and relatives in a bad psychological state.”
While Stern believes that “the prices for the deal will be high in any case,” Golan Barhoum, a lecturer at the Center for Public Diplomacy in Israel, explains that “the issue of hostages in Israel is sacred.”
He told the “Al-Hurra” website: “Israel has historically worked hard on this issue and concluded deals. It is true that it wants to dismantle Hamas at the present time, but at the same time it is working on the complete release of the hostages.”
He added: “Even if there was victory on the ground, the picture would not be complete. The issue is extremely sensitive, as it is related to saving life that we sanctify.”
“Division into degrees”
It is not yet clear whether the “imminent deal” will include the rest of the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip or will be limited only to Hamas.
On Wednesday, Reuters quoted the Secretary-General of the Islamic Jihad movement, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, as saying that “negotiations regarding the Israeli hostages may push the movement to withdraw from any agreement.”
Nakhla added: “The movement may keep the hostages it is holding for better conditions.”
Former member of the Palestinian delegation negotiating the peace process, Khalil Tufakji, believes that international or local pressure on Israel “is what led to its involvement in the deal regarding the hostages and the ceasefire in Gaza.”
Demonstrators in the West Bank stand in solidarity with Gaza and demand the release of detainees in Israeli prisons.
Tufakji told Al-Hurra website: “The ceasefire, if it is completed, means that we have reached the end, and indicates that there is pressure, whether local, Arab or international, on Israel.”
Although the Israeli forces entered Gaza City, “they did not control the entire Strip and did not enter Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia.”
Tufakji believes that the recent incursions on the ground “cannot affect the resistance factions and the negotiations they will conduct regarding the prisoners,” as he put it.
“From day one, Hamas proposed the idea of dividing the hostage issue into levels, meaning civilians versus civilians, and the military personnel would be transferred to another stage.”
Tufakji continues: “There is no concession on the part of Hamas regarding the hostage issue. The imminent agreement will not be a weak point, especially since rockets are still being fired towards Ashkelon and Tel Aviv.”
“No one in Israel can ignore the hostage issue at the present time,” says Golan Barhoum, a lecturer at the Center for Public Diplomacy in Israel.
The researcher adds, “If there is a deal to release the hostages with a ceasefire for a certain period, this will not amount to a cessation of military operations from the air, land, and sea.”
‘Shorter ceasefire’
Israel has been intensively bombing the Gaza Strip for 5 weeks, in response to the unprecedented attack launched by Hamas on October 7, and Israeli ground forces are making progress in the northern Gaza Strip, while engaging in battles with the movement’s militants in Gaza City.
But now, more than a month later, “world leaders realize that Israel’s goals in this war (i.e., destroying Hamas) are unrealistic, but they want Israel to be able to claim victory regardless,” says Alexander Langlois, an American researcher who focuses on Middle East affairs.
Langlois explains to Al-Hurra: “While the IDF controls Gaza City in parallel with the negotiations, we may reach a point where the West (especially the United States) will pressure the Israelis to accept a hostage agreement brokered by Qatar.”
The above will be similar to the Gaza war in 2021, when US President Biden said: “Enough is enough” and called for an end, which Israel quickly committed to.
This gave Israel the ability to claim a certain degree of success without extending the conflict in ugly ways that would ultimately harm Israeli support and increase criticism of its supporters, according to the American researcher.
Langlois believes that “Washington has almost reached an agreement, with the help of Qatar, to release the Americans in exchange for a serious truce or ceasefire,” and this will likely not be a complete ceasefire (which may also mean that some Americans will remain detained as leverage), but rather a ceasefire. Shorter fire in exchange for a large portion of the hostages.
Given Cohen’s comments about a period of two to three weeks, “the impending deal could indicate a broader agreement in this timeline that ends the fighting and leads to a broader release process.”
However, Langlois says it “depends on many competing factors.”
These factors are: “Hamas’ willingness to release all prisoners given Israel’s refusal to release Palestinian prisoners in return, Israel’s interest in stopping the fighting before Hamas is destroyed, the United States’ interest in actually pressuring Israel regarding a ceasefire, and any serious progress on a peace agreement.” Wider between Palestinians and Israelis.
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2023-11-15 02:24:03
