/ world at present information/ The raging Israeli-Palestinian struggle impacts your complete world group – no matter who sympathizes with whom and the way far they’re from the Gaza Strip. As a result of we’re not coping with only one (albeit the oldest) of the recent spots on the earth, however with an issue that may actually blow up the entire world. And neither the battle in Ukraine nor the hypothetical struggle over Taiwan will be in comparison with it in focus of contradictions and scale of threats.
Degree One: Israeli-Palestinian. In response to the Palestinian Hamas assault, Israel is now hanging the Gaza Strip after beforehand slicing off water, gasoline and electrical energy provides. And he’s making ready to launch a floor operation geared toward destroying not solely Hamas’s infrastructure and army may, however the group itself. However that is unattainable to do: Hamas has lengthy since develop into not solely the federal government, but additionally the organizational construction of the Palestinians in Gaza. About three million Palestinians dwell on this small piece of land, and so as to destroy Hamas, Israel should both raze Gaza to the bottom or drive all Palestinians to flee to neighboring Egypt. Neither one nor the opposite is bodily unattainable – though Gaza has been dwelling for many years within the regime of a big focus camp (blockade and fully depending on Israel), the Palestinians won’t go away there even beneath carpet bombing. Nor will Israel be capable to drive them out or carry Gaza beneath army management. A floor operation, if launched, would price the Jewish state monumental casualties (in city battles), and whole army superiority, because the occasions of October 7 confirmed, is now not decisive for achievement.
So whereas Prime Minister Netanyahu is now threatening Hamas with terror and claiming that in retaliation “we are going to change the Center East,” the probabilities of Israel partaking in a full-scale, full-scale, short-term army invasion of Gaza seem slim. Not solely as a result of in actuality Israel doesn’t have the power to destroy Hamas, but additionally as a result of a army operation would escalate the battle. And this can present itself not solely in an assault on Israel from the north by the Lebanese Hezbollah, but additionally in the truth that the Israeli-Palestinian battle will develop into an Israeli-Arab one. That’s, what it was initially.
And that is the second degree. Israel might in fact be attempting to bomb the Palestinians into the Stone Age, however many hundreds after which tens of hundreds of civilian casualties in Gaza will trigger an explosion of concern within the Arab streets of the Center East and drive the governments of the area to alter their insurance policies not solely in the direction of Israel, however to demand that the US cease the Israeli struggle machine. All efforts made lately to determine relations between Israel and particular person Arab nations will probably be destroyed. As well as, the try to liquidate Gaza, together with the outbreak of clashes in Jerusalem and the West Financial institution of the Jordan River and hostilities with “Hezbollah” on the territory of Lebanon, will activate the third degree of the battle – the Israeli-Islamic one. The complete billion and a half Muslim world will demand to guard the Palestinians and Al-Quds – Jerusalem, sacred to all believers. As this third degree of battle is reached, the specter of Iran’s involvement, not solely as a regional energy, but additionally as a contender for the place of chief defender of Islam in your complete world, will increase.
Opposite to all hypothesis, the present assault by Hamas was not provoked by Tehran – we’re coping with an rebellion of focus camp prisoners, that’s, those that don’t have anything to lose and who’re bored with fixed humiliation, dependence on an order of magnitude stronger enemy and hopelessness . Iran doesn’t want a struggle with Israel now – simply as Israel doesn’t want a struggle with Iran (though there are supporters within the Israeli management of attacking Iran, however they wish to do it with another person’s, American arms – which Washington undoubtedly doesn’t must dare to take action). However the hazard of the Israeli-Palestinian drawback is that, due to its many layers and neglect, it’s fraught with uncontrollable eventualities. Ultimately, the three ranges above don’t exhaust it, though they themselves may, if escalated, result in full-scale struggle between a number of nations within the area, together with using nuclear weapons (by Israel – the opposite nations don’t have such ). However the Israeli-Palestinian drawback isn’t restricted to those three ranges.
There’s additionally a fourth degree in it – that is the battle between the East and the West or the West and the International South. Israel isn’t just a creation, but additionally part of the West – extra exactly, its Anglo-Saxon vanguard. Israel is not any unusual nation, however truly the 51st American state within the Center East and a privileged nation. Everybody understands that going to struggle with Israel is tantamount to going to struggle with the US. However the issue is that US world dominance is already shaken (and the development is unquestionably unfavorable for the US). And together with that, Israel’s dominance within the area has been shaken – neither the atomic bomb, nor technological superiority, nor skillful propaganda can anymore guarantee its safety and existence within the medium time period.
As a result of at present’s Israel fully shamelessly and with impunity (if we discuss such a favourite device of the West as sanctions) tramples on all of the rights of the Palestinians (builds its personal state on their lands and doesn’t wish to give them the correct to create their very own), can solely exist within the period of American dominance (and earlier than that within the period of Soviet-American confrontation). This period, in any case, can not final ceaselessly, however it may be used to unravel the Palestinian drawback. Discovering this answer was in Israel’s curiosity, as a result of on this means it may stop the approaching of instances when it could be left alone with the Arabs round it, that’s, doomed. Nonetheless, Israel didn’t wish to acknowledge the rising actuality and look actually at its prospects – and didn’t enable the creation of a Palestinian state, and it itself didn’t wish to develop into a state of two peoples (it didn’t abandon the precept of a purely Jewish nation-state, which does Palestinians full residents). Israel itself has doomed itself to defeat within the short-term historic perspective – and even now continues to confer with its opponents as “terrorists” and “beasts in human type”, that’s, refuses to acknowledge its duty for the a long time of humiliation of the Palestinian individuals.
And these humiliations additionally remind us of the fifth, most severe degree of measurement of the Israeli-Palestinian battle – the eschatological one. The wrestle for Jerusalem has been the quintessence of world historical past for many of our period – and now the holy metropolis stays on the middle of worldwide controversy. And it would not simply stay: the world has entered a interval of nice transformations, a change in your complete world order. The half-millennium interval of Western domination is ending – new instances and new guidelines are coming and forming. In any case, the Palestinian query will be unable to stay in its earlier, unresolved, hanging type – it’ll both detonate or truly start to be resolved, ceasing to be a worldwide hearth with eternally smoldering coals.
Translation: V. SergeiV
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