Can we look forward to a white Christmas in 2021? Many hope for snow on Christmas Eve – but what are the chances? A weather expert is committed.
Kassel – The desire for snow is particularly great on Christmas Eve and the public holidays. When the white splendor covers house roofs, the snow creaks under your shoes while walking and children build big snowmen in the gardens, it becomes particularly contemplative. But this phenomenon rarely occurs in Germany. A really white Christmas was eleven years ago. It was last seen on Christmas Eve 2010. Snow on Christmas seems long overdue. But how likely is that for 2021?
In many regions of Germany, a white Christmas often remains an unfulfilled wish. In recent years, a green or gray festival has been celebrated instead of a white one. Especially in the lower elevations, the probability of a closed snow cover on the holidays is rather low. “Statistically, the chances of a white Christmas in the lowlands are only 10 percent,” explains weather expert Dominik Jung von wetter.net. In the low mountain ranges and the Alps, however, it looks a little better. But for snow to fall and, above all, to stay there, it has to be cold. And that was not the case at Christmas in 2020, at least.
Shortly before Christmas 2010, up to 15 centimeters of fresh snow fell in Berlin. Will there be a white Christmas again in 2021?
© Kay Nietfeld / dpa
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Weather: chances of a white Christmas in 2021? Expert gives hope: “A whopping 70 percent”
According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the average temperature in December 2020 was 3.0 degrees Celsius and thus 2.2 degrees above the internationally valid reference period 1961 to 1990. The temperatures rose again over Christmas in particular. It became unusually mild, sometimes over 15 degrees – before the temperatures dropped again by a good 10 degrees on Boxing Day. So it only got really frosty after the festival at the end of December. Will that also be the case in 2021?
The first trends for the weather in December are already there and they give hope. After the cold and wet November, there are at least signs of a cool to cold first winter month. A first onset of winter on the 1st of Advent * including a snow bomb has already been forecast for the weather in Germany. It should go on in winter. According to an expert, the likelihood of a white Christmas has therefore increased significantly. Meteorologist Jan Schenk from The Weather Channel even speaks of “an incredible 70 percent”. According to him, this year’s weather situation is comparable to the last snow winter 2010. And on Christmas Day, snowmen were built in many regions.
| year | Temperature average |
|---|---|
| December 2020 | 3.0 Degrees Celsius |
| December 2019 | 3.7 Degrees Celsius |
| December 2018 | 3.8 Degrees Celsius |
| December 2021 | 2.6 Degrees Celsius |
| (Those: DWD) |
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Weather trend for December 2021 and Christmas: will there be snow on Christmas Eve?
The current trend of the European weather model also calculates cool temperatures at least for mid-December – even permafrost is expected in some regions, according to a report by wetter.de. For the fourth Advent the values could rise again well above 0 degrees, but at least in some higher lying areas one could more than hope for a white Christmas.
The long-term forecasts of the American weather model NOAA, on the other hand, show a normal December. In some parts of Europe, however, it could also be too cold. The trend here is also towards an average to wet month. A combination that, according to the weather portal, last brought a white Christmas in 2010. But much can still change in terms of forecasts.
You can find more exciting weather news * on our topic page.
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Long-term forecasts show the trend for weather at Christmas: Chances are good
How exactly the weather will develop in December remains to be seen. An exact forecast for Christmas is only possible shortly before the festival, according to graduate meteorologist Dominik Jung. “Precise statements about the coming Christmas can only be made five to ten days before the festival, in the case of a borderline weather situation even only a day or two before”, says the expert.
But at least the current weather trend gives hope for snow at Christmas. Because if you believe the statements of the experts, the chances of a white Christmas are better than they have been for a long time. (svw) * hna.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.
Header list image: © Kay Nietfeld / dpa
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