Is there more violence in society? Variable geometry statistics

Is the number of violence increasing in France? The question divides two government ministers. The Minister of the Interior believes that there is a “Wildly” of society, which is contested by the Minister of Justice who fears that such a vocabulary feeds the feeling of insecurity fed by economic difficulties and some media .

To see more clearly, can we then rely on the reality of the statistics? Not entirely. Two main sources exist. Police, gendarmerie and justice statistics, namely the recording of proceedings and convictions. And the victimization surveys carried out by The Delinquency Observatory (ONDRP) and INSEE: approximately 20,000 people each year specify whether they have been the victims of an offense (burglary, assault, threat, etc.) over the past two years.

Victims do not file a complaint

However, between these two sources of information, the results are sometimes contradictory , notes Antoine Jardin, researcher at the Center for Sociological Research on Law and Penal Institutions (Cesdip). Since 2007, violence within the couple are on the rise according to the sources of the gendarmerie and the police, while they are rather stable according to victimization surveys . Is it because the number of these assaults is increasing or because the victims are filing more complaints? If sexual violence, for example, is increasing in the statistics of the Ministry of the Interior, it is – it seems – because this violence, which has long been silenced, is more declared , illustrates Antoine Jardin.

However, a large part of the victims, all offenses combined, do not file a complaint: About 40% , specifies the researcher. So many offenses that therefore do not enter the statistics of the police.

More visible violence

Christophe Soullez, head of the National Delinquency Observatory, agrees: We do not know how to measure hyperviolence. The practices of recording offenses within the Ministry of the Interior have evolved several times over the years. Difficult, in this case, to make comparisons. In 2015, under the presidency of François Hollande, a new statistical tool was put in place. Under Emmanuel Macron, the National Crime Observatory will cease its activity at the end of the year and, with it, victimization surveys. It is now the data of the Ministry of the Interior that will serve as a reference and, Monday, September 7, Minister Gérald Darmanin announced that the ministry will publish security figures every month …

Moreover, if currently this violence free , such as attacks on drivers and elected officials, are of greater concern to public opinion, is it because there are more or because they are more visible in the media and on social networks? asks Christophe Soullez again.

The latter remembers that a little over five years ago, there was a lot of talk about thefts with violence, especially in small businesses. They have now been halved .

For researcher Antoine Jardin, another bias may explain the current impression of an increase in attacks on people. We find a level of offenses comparable to what it was before confinement. This recovery can give the impression of a return to delinquency.

The only certainty: the political debate on security, less present during the 2017 presidential election, returns to the forefront of the news. Until the 2022 presidential election?

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