Is there any doubt that the crypto bull market is over? Five key data have given the green light

The market is always born in despair, grows in half-belief and doubt, matures in nostalgia, and breaks down in hope.
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cityAlthough the market is not as optimistic as most people think, it is also not as pessimistic as some people think. No one expected that the decline of the crypto market, which began in March of this year, would last for half a year. It once fell to the point where some investors could not help but curse and criticize the exchange to a point where some whales tweeted that they had given up.

Will there still be a copycat season? Every time when the market is in doubt, it is just the lowest area of the market every time, the answer of history always answers: yes.

History is always amazing like in 2023, the market also started to be quiet in the middle of the year until it started to go away last October. The same is true this year, the interesting thing is that some funds looked smart and it seems that they caught the scent and made a quick arrangement in advance. After an early October recap, the self-prophecy of “October Rising” has once again come true. which was once spied on.

After waiting half a year, is the bull market coming?

The exchange rate of Bitcoin to ETF is going up against the dollar

The final data of Bitcoin spot ETF represents the actual amount of money purchased over the counter. The difference between it and our personal transactions is that it means that some people are willing to pay handling fees for others to buy BTC on their behalf. Judging from past historical records, when the net inflow is large, the purchase volume is large, and the price of Bitcoin often rises. When the net outflow is large, the price falls.

Since the official launch of the spot ETF, the total net inflow has reached US$20.66 billion. It is worth noting that from October 1 to today, there have been 6 days of total outflows, but 7 days of net inflows, and the level of net inflows is large but it’s not big. On October 14, the net inflow exceeded US$ 555 million On October 16 and 17, the net inflow exceeded US$ 450 million.

Although in terms of number of days, net inflows and net outflows are roughly equal, the amount of outflows is small, and the amount of net inflows is often several times larger. the net outflows.

Even the neutral spot Ethereum ETF has rarely seen a one-day net inflow of $48.41 million since October.

The buying power of OTC currencies remains very strong.

Stablecoin market capitalization is near an all-time high

The change in the share price was stable to digital currency. Although the market has been up and down over the last few years, with money coming in and out, when we look at it from a wider perspective, it is difficult to be -hopeful.

The total market value of stablecoins hit a historic high of US$186.3 billion in mid-2022, and then continued to decline, but remained overall above US$120 billion. Fast forward to October 2023, capital inflows are accelerating, and the total market value of stable has exceeded US$172.3 billion.

The high register is just around the corner.

The unknown net profit of BTC shows that most players are already profitable

Bitcoin net profit/loss is mainly used to measure the profit/loss of players on the Bitcoin chain. We can see that the colors of its layers from top to bottom are red, orange, light yellow, gray-white and light blue. The blue at the bottom means that most people are losing money, and the red at the top means that most players are making profits.

When the line chart is in the light blue area, it is often the lowest area of the BTC price, because people who lost money and cut their meat continue to leave the market to bottom is built when the line chart is in the yellow or red zone, often the highest range of BTC price. Back and forth.

From the line chart, the market is currently climbing back from the light colored area to the yellow area. According to information published by IntoTheBlock, 95% of BTC addresses have now achieved profit, and market sentiment has improved significantly.

Historically, such levels have tended to indicate a strong bullish trend, although they may also represent overextension.

The long-term holder of Bitcoin is still buying, buying, buying

The Long-term Holders measure essentially shows the total supply of BTC held by long-term holders. The long-term holder here specifically refers to the address that holds BTC for more than 155 days or more.

The chart above shows that when BTC prices peak, Bitcoin holders have fewer long-term holdings. This is because smart money always chooses to take profits when prices climb to the top. After the price fell, they continued to collect BTC again After the price returned to a high level, they sold again, and the cycle repeats.

The chart shows that starting from the end of July this year, this part of the long-term holder started the buying and selling mode again, and the line chart is on the right looks very casual. In fact, these smart funds are optimistic about the future market outlook.

It is worth mentioning that according to CryptoQuant data, new whale addresses are holding BTC almost passively. Founder Ki Young Ju said the BTC market has never seen such rallying behavior. Some believe that the new whales are primarily the result of ETF inflows, but recent rallying behavior shows that these new whales have little to do with ETFs.

The open interest in Bitcoin contracts across the entire network has reached an all-time high

Today, according to data from Coinglass, the open interest in Bitcoin contracts across the entire network rose to more than $39.7 billion, setting the record.

Contract information often represents market funds’ views on the market outlook. It often lags the performance of Bitcoin spot prices Because of this, when the market is converging and very optimistic about the short-term outlook of the market, it is easy to use in a correction, cleaning chips and levers.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin open interest has remained at a very high level over the past six months. This data is at the highest level, breaking for the first time the data of more than US $ 38 billion at the beginning of this year. Market optimism has soared.

summary

From a macro perspective, the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in November and December. A series of indicators on a chain indicate that the market is continuing to recover and money is flowing in.

“The market is always born in despair, grows in half-belief and doubt, matures in nostalgia, and breaks down in hope.”

Perhaps, after waiting for almost half a year, a new round of bull market in the crypto market is ready to take off.