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In the last week, the new positive coronavirus cases in the UK have decreased compared to the previous one, circulating the first hypotheses among analysts about a possible end of the third wave, which had started in the country around the middle of last June due to the more contagious delta variant. Almost 230,000 cases were found in the last seven days: the situation continues to be difficult, but the amount of hospitalizations is lower than in previous waves thanks to the effects of the vaccination campaign.
Vaccines appear to have had more influence than other measures on containing the new wave. In much of the UK there are practically no restrictions, although it is still recommended to practice physical distancing and to wear masks in the most risky situations. Despite the absence of restrictions, the new positive cases detected decreased significantly and within a few weeks: in mid-July they were over 50 thousand a day, while in the last few days they were about half.
It will still take a few days to establish whether the third wave in the country has really entered its downward phase, but experts are relatively optimistic and what is happening in the UK could be repeated in other countries, such as Italy, where positive cases continue. to be in increase.
Several elements can explain the reduction in cases in the last few days.
Vaccines
The main one is the vaccination campaign, which in the United Kingdom has progressed with good speed and which has now led to 56 per cent of the population fully vaccinated (in Italy we are around 53 per cent). Vaccines offer good protection against COVID-19 and have been shown to be highly effective against severe forms of the disease, greatly reducing hospitalizations and deaths.
To have good protection even against the delta variant it is necessary to complete the vaccination course, usually with two doses. In the UK, many people in mid-June were still waiting to receive the second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, requiring a longer waiting time after the first administration. It is possible that the progressive increase in fully vaccinated over the past month has led to better defense against the delta variant, ultimately reducing the effects of its spread.
Cautions
The reduction of new positive cases could have been influenced by a more responsible behavior on the part of many individuals, following the marked increase in infections starting from June due to the delta variant. A return to tens of thousands of new cases a day has led to reduce risky behaviors, to favor outdoor meetings thanks to the summer and to make greater use of masks and physical distancing, even if no longer mandatory in many circumstances.
Euro 2020
Some analyzes hypothesize that the increase in cases between June and July may have influenced the European football championships, given that several matches – including the final – were played in the United Kingdom. The limitations for the public were reduced and crowds of fans had occurred in several cases, not only in the stadiums. However, it is difficult to derive an increase in cases from such events with certainty and studies and analyzes are still ongoing.
Take a look at the gender difference in Covid cases over the Euros. Bar graphs are male cases minus female cases in the young. Suggests it’s a factor in the post-Euros case fall. @FT pic.twitter.com/hke6Hz8DVQ
— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) July 27, 2021
Test
There have been some variations in the amount of testing performed in the past few weeks and this could affect case detection. Schools are over and consequently there are fewer tests between teachers and students, moreover some may have decided not to perform tests even if with some symptoms, for fear of ruining their holidays.
Hospitals and deaths
The third wave in the UK was not felt like the previous two in hospitals, largely thanks to vaccines. The people hospitalized for COVID-19 are almost 6 thousand and have continued to increase in recent days. As is well known, hospitalizations begin to decrease later than the reduction of new positive cases because it takes time to heal.
If the reduction in infections in the last few days were to be confirmed, the first reductions in hospital admissions should be observed in a couple of weeks. The same delay applies to deaths, usually the last to decrease.
Wait
To understand if the third wave is in a downward phase in the United Kingdom, it will take a few weeks for another reason as well. The removal of the latest restrictions dates back to about ten days ago and their possible negative effect is not yet visible in the trend of infections. The first effects on the minor limitations can be evaluated in about a week, when enough time has elapsed to get a more complete idea.
Estate
In 2020, new coronavirus cases had significantly reduced during the summer, a period in which people tend to spend more time outdoors and many places with a high risk of contagion, such as schools and offices, are less frequented. At the time, however, there was not such a contagious variant in circulation as the delta, which has the ability to spread very quickly. Its negative effects are however mitigated by the presence of vaccines, which were not yet available in the summer of 2020.
Health authorities and experts yes they ask if with the arrival of the cold season a new wave can occur, with the reopening of schools and greater attendance of indoor environments.
Other countries
Several other European countries and the United States in recent weeks have had to deal with a significant increase in coronavirus cases, precisely due to the progressive spread of the delta variant. Although with some differences, the data show trends comparable to those in the UK, with a marked delay due to the fact that the variant had started to spread in the UK earlier than elsewhere.
In recent weeks, positive cases in the United States have increased by 145 percent, with an increase in hospitalizations especially among those who had not been vaccinated. At the moment there are no signs of a slowdown in infections, so much so that the US health authorities have recently recommended returning to wearing masks indoors in the most risky situations.
In France, in the last 15 days, the increase in positive cases was 350 percent, while hospitalizations and deaths remained low. In recent days there have been more contained increases in new cases, but it is too early to establish whether a slowdown is underway as is happening in the United Kingdom.
In Spain, where cases had returned to increase earlier than in other countries and again due to the delta variant, the daily cases continue to be over 25 thousand per day, but the situation seems to be starting to stabilize. In Italy, cases have continued to increase since the end of June and, although with lower numbers than many European states, there are currently no indications of a slowdown.
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