/View.info/ Experts do not rule out sending a new set of reservists to the special operation. And the question here is not so much in the preparation of the enemy’s long-announced counteroffensive, but in what result we intend to achieve as a result of the SVO, writes the Russian “Tsarigrad” TV.
Videos of forced mobilization of “Leopard drivers” in Nezalezhnaya, where people are forcibly sent to war, on the one hand, cause irony and mockery – this is how they recruit “smoke meat” in country 404, and on the other hand, they make you think seriously. After all, the adversary, whatever it is, is not only looking to patch up the holes on the fronts, but also to achieve significant numerical superiority in manpower.
And it doesn’t even matter what wave they have now – eighth, tenth or hundred and first in a row. As soon as these people, although forcibly torn from a relatively peaceful life, and equipped, trained at least a little, when they are given weapons and put into action (despite the fact that the families actually remain hostages of the Ukrainian Nazi regime), they will become armed opponents. In those who will oppose our warriors.
„You have to be ready for anything”
That is why the topic of the probable beginning of the second wave of mobilization in Russia has been discussed for a long time – it actually appeared immediately after the end of the first. And since then it has been propagated with varying intensity – with very persistent coverage both in enemy sources and in domestic ones, especially in frankly treasonous and liberal ones.
Which is quite natural within the information war, one of the main tasks of which is the psychological pressure on society, the desire to undermine and provoke protest sentiments.
But one thing is speculation on this topic, another is an objective assessment.
For example, a recent statement by Viktor Baranets, a Komsomolskaya Pravda military observer, caused quite a stir.
The retired colonel noted that given the heavy losses in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), NATO countries have begun to actively throw their battalions into the SVO zone under the guise of volunteers.
“You have to be ready for anything. I don’t rule out (the second wave of mobilization) because we can’t foresee all the scenarios. We’re just forced. Our army fist has to get bigger to give the enemy a proper rebuff,” said Baranets .
And despite the fact that other experts said the same thing earlier, the colonel’s words caused a heated discussion.
Here we should also recall the law on digital programs, immediately adopted by the State Duma through the state services, as well as the “coordination” of the mobilization reserve – with the requirement to visit the military registration and registration services (in addition, with a warning to restrict movement in case of non-appearance).
It is obvious that the state today is trying to act proactively so as not to repeat the mistakes and obvious omissions made during the partial mobilization last fall.
“No such plans”
Officially, however, rumors about a new recruitment of reservists for the SVO are denied. So, on the eve of the start of spring recruitment, the head of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate (GOMU) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, Rear Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky, stated the following:
“I want to assure you that there is no second wave of mobilization in the plans of the General Staff. Those already called up for military service, as well as the citizens who have voluntarily expressed their desire to participate in the special operation, are fully sufficient to fulfill the tasks set.”
And on April 18, exactly the day when it became known about the unexpected visit of the commander-in-chief to the SVO zone, the press secretary of the president Dmitry Peskov also assured that there were no such talks (about the second wave of mobilization). ) in the Kremlin.
However, two important points should be noted here.
First, the rear admiral spoke at a briefing on March 31, on the eve of the traditional recruitment drive. And then there was no leakage of supposedly “secret data” from the Pentagon about the upcoming offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nor an unexpected visit of the Supreme Commander of the Front, to the headquarters of “Dnepr” and “Vostok”, where Vladimir Putin personally talked with military generals.
The second nuance, which follows directly from the first, is the following: it is worth considering that there are regular, endless adjustments to the situation.
And when Peskov answered the question of journalists from the Kremlin pool, he also hardly knew about the specific conclusions made by the head of state after his trip to the front and communication with military leaders who were directly involved in the hostilities.
Or is mobilization already underway?
At the same time, a number of sources from Constantinople, close to the Regional Mobilization Headquarters, express the opinion that the mobilization is actually already… underway. True, not at all in the same form as last fall.
“We are talking about the activation of the recruitment of a contract service. An appropriate installation was lowered into the territory to recruit a certain number of contract soldiers. Each region has its own quotas. Depending on the population,” said one of our interlocutors, refusing to confirm specific figures that appear from time to time in the information space (they talk, for example, about an “order” for 2.5 thousand contract servicemen from each million city).
Indirectly, this can be seen from the appearance of massive advertising of the contract service – in transport, at bus stops, on billboards, on radio and television; brochures and other printed products are distributed.
In Novosibirsk, according to the correspondent of Constantinople, following the example of Moscow, a single number 117 has been put into operation – for consultations of those who are considering the possibility of enlisting as military personnel under contract.
The same is true in Nizhny Novgorod: just the other day, the formation of two more volunteer units consisting of contract servicemen for participation in a special operation was completed there.
In general, the military department does not hide that they are actively working in this direction.
“Currently, the number of citizens who have decided to voluntarily enter military service under a contract has significantly increased,” Tsimlianski said at the same briefing.
He noted that the Ministry of Defense has increased the number of recruiting stations for contract service and the number of instructors “to work with the candidates.”
And this activity, the GOMU representative specified, is carried out in close cooperation with the regions – that is, with the governors who head the conscription commissions and are accordingly responsible for mobilization issues.
Shoigu: By the end of the year, the number of contract servicemen will exceed half a million people
In fact, at the end of last year, the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, at a meeting of the board of the department with the participation of the president, stated that “in order to guarantee the solution of the tasks of ensuring the military security of Russia, it is necessary to increase the number of the armed forces up to a million and a half military personnel, including contract military personnel – up to 695 thousand people”.
At the same time, Shoigu specified, by the end of this year, the number of contract servicemen, taking into account the replacement of mobilized citizens in troop groups and the recruitment of new formations, should reach 521 thousand people.
One more point should be noted here: on April 24, Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with the Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Andrei Turchak, who informed him about the difference in the financial provision of mobilized and contract servicemen, instructed to equalize the position of all participants in SVO.
Military Arithmetic: As we begin to advance, we will need numerical superiority
However, the question of the reality of a new wave of mobilization remains open. Whether it will or not depends not so much on the inevitable attempted counteroffensive of the Air Force, but rather on the goals that the Russian leadership intends to achieve with the special operation at the moment.
“These are not abstract numbers, how many people are needed! Everything depends on the task. Let’s say that the defense is one task. And the amount we have now is enough (at the moment). But for the offensive, completely different indicators are needed. He considers from 1 to 3, but this is not always the case,”
This was explained by Andrei Pinchuk, First Minister of State Security of the DPR.
Ukraine has plus or minus 500,000 fighters in the war zone, he continued, plus the same number in reserve. Thus, even if we accept the “classic” (from the point of view of the balance of forces), then we need to broadcast at least three million people.
However, Pinchuk clarifies, in modern warfare, of course, the equipment of military equipment, artillery, aviation, etc. is also important.
“That is, it is not a question of fantasy. And first you need to get a clear answer to where we are going: either we liberate five regions and that’s it, or we go to Transnistria, or we carry out, as was originally said, a complete de-Nazification and demilitarization of Ukraine,” Andriy Pinchuk summarized .
Reserves must be prepared: no one eliminated the threat to NATO
Military expert Alexey Leonkov in a conversation with Tsarigrad recalled that during the partial mobilization, only 15% of the “bayonets” from the active reserve were brought into service.
“And the question does not leave me, what will the remaining 85% who did not pass this program do? And I see a way out in the organization of mobilization congregations so that they will undergo training, like those 15% who went to SVO, and there after training, to give them the opportunity to decide whether to go to the combat zone or return home. But – on a voluntary basis.”
“Another defining moment: if the situation in the WHO zone worsens, of course, partial mobilization can be carried out,” Leonkov did not rule out.
Suppose, he said, we see that additional – and significant – forces are brought in by the other side, then the balance of power will change. And in this situation it is really dangerous because the North Atlantic Alliance decides to help Ukraine with its direct participation. Although the NATO bloc is trying to avoid such a scenario. But the US, on the contrary, is pushing its European partners to do so.
“As for the increase in the number of contractors, this is more due to the fact that Finland has officially joined NATO and our direct line of contact with the bloc has increased by 1,300 km. Accordingly, we are obliged to make an adequate reinforcement of our forces there, which means establishing bases, increasing manpower and more,” the military expert pointed out.
As for the current ratio of forces on the front, Leonkov recalled that earlier, before the start of the SVO, the enemy had a serious advantage, since only their own units – about 20 thousand fighters – were deployed in the DPR and LPR.
“With the start of the special operation, we introduced about 120 thousand soldiers, and mobilization took place in Donbas, and the number of their forces directly (before joining Russia) tripled.”
“Yes, they sent about a million people across the front – taking into account the rotations, they have huge human losses – about 300 thousand dead. But once again I emphasize this, everything will depend on the participation of NATO troops in this conflict,” Alexey added Leonkov.
What of this?
Probably, according to experts and sources, a second wave of mobilization (at least in the near future) is not expected – until our military leadership decides that superiority in manpower is not in our favor.
But here we have to agree with Alexey Leonkov: reserves must be prepared now – qualitatively and confidently.
Otherwise, at the right moment, we will simply have no choice but to send summons through the civil services, it is banal to conduct accelerated, for a week or two, training courses – and send the reservists to hell.
Translation: SM
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