Rocío Muñoz-Ledo
(CNN Español) — The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), a legendary political force in Mexico, is facing the worst crisis in its history, according to experts.
In addition to finishing as the third political force in the general elections on June 2 —below the now hegemonic Morena party and the right-wing National Action Party (PAN)— the PRI faces divisions among its leaders and has needed alliances to maintain its political influence.
José Antonio Carrera Barroso, a political scientist and specialist in political parties, points out that the PRI is at its most critical moment and “2024 will become a historic year because the PRI is dying in the party system.” One of those signs of agony is that for the first time in its history, the PRI did not present a candidate for the presidency.
What is the PRI, what is its ideology and history in Mexico?
In 2018, José Antonio Meade was the last PRI candidate to run in a presidential election. This year, the PRI – led by Alejandro “Alito” Moreno – formed an alliance with the PAN and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) to launch a candidacy, but Xóchitl Gálvez emerged from the ranks of the PAN, of which she is a senator, and ultimately won the internal battle in the coalition to contest the presidency with the ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, now president-elect.
Barroso emphasizes that this fact reflects a deep institutional crisis: “Since the presidency of “Alito”, the PRI has been a party that has supported the decisions of the opposition, which has led to a party crisis.”
Alejandra López Martínez, a consultant specializing in the analysis and design of public policies with a gender perspective, says that the PRI has been in free fall since 2000, when it lost the presidency of Mexico for the first time in 70 years to the PAN candidate, Vicente Fox.
The party regained power with Enrique Peña Nieto, who served as president for the period 2012-2018, but lost again in 2018 after the victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, of Morena.
“The PRI had to reinvent itself after losing the presidency for the first time. The PRI needed to renew itself. It seemed that the new PRI represented by Enrique Peña Nieto had a younger, more progressive vision, but it didn’t last long,” says the specialist.
López Martínez, who is also a specialist in political marketing, adds that “the PRI is a party that has been in decline in terms of its political power and influence on the population, while others have been rising, particularly Morena.”
In 2024, the political scene is dominated by Morena, and the PRI only governs in two of the 32 states: Coahuila and Durango. Until 1989, the PRI governed all the states in the country.
From PRI hegemony to Morena’s dominance: this is how the electoral map in Mexico has changed
“People associate the PRI with inequality, poverty, marginalization and corruption,” says Carrera Barroso, an academic at the Autonomous Metropolitan University (UAM). This citizen disenchantment is evident in recent election results, where the PRI has significantly lost strength, he adds.
Three former PRI governors are serving sentences for corruption: Javier Duarte, former governor of Veracruz; and Eugenio Hernández and Tomás Yarrington, of Tamaulipas. Others have open cases against them.
“I think that if there is one negative aspect of the PRI, it is this history of corruption, and obviously these scandals contribute to this and do not help it to recover its image. They only reinforce the idea that the PRI is corrupt and that one should not vote for it,” López Martínez added.
Does the reelection of “Alito” Moreno help the PRI?
On July 7, the PRI amended its statutes so that Alejandro Moreno could be re-elected as president of that force for up to two more terms, of four years each, which would mean he could remain in that position until 2032. According to “Alito” Moreno, the changes seek to rebuild the party.
“By decision of all of you, today a new stage in the political life of our organization emerges. A new path begins to rebuild ourselves as a political force that continues to define the destiny of a democratic Mexico, a republican one of freedoms and committed to social justice,” said Moreno during the assembly where the statutes were changed.
For Alejandra López Martínez, the internal election process “is a mere formality for the re-election of Alejandro Moreno.”
He gives an example: “When a national leader of any party had very bad results, he was like the technical director of the National Team, when they were beaten, he would retire and there would be a democratic process within the party.”
Alito Moreno says he will remain in the PRI presidency until 2024 despite accusations of alleged corruption
“Reality is eating away at them, a leadership that, by clinging to power, is not listening to either the citizens or its militants, but only to the elite that surrounds it,” says López Martínez.
The UAM researcher sees Moreno’s reelection as a symptom of this crisis: “We are experiencing a very interesting issue because it is the first time that a PRI leader has been reelected,” which has the support of some bases, but is repudiated by many PRI leaders who do not agree with his reelection.
Although Moreno offers to revitalize the party with his re-election, “if he has not revitalized it in these years, what would make us think that a re-election will revitalize the party?” asks political scientist Carrera Barroso.
What could be the future of the PRI?
Neither of these experts sees a promising future for the PRI, but instead predicts that it could disappear in a few years.
López Martínez predicts that the party will disappear as happened with the leftist PRD, but it will not let itself die so easily, he says, “without a doubt it will fight back because it was the party that had the most power in Mexico, in fact, it was a unique party.”
But along the way, before a probable disappearance, the PRI will be “losing followers, losing voters, losing cadres and losing registration.”
Another path would be to become a “pivot party,” says López.
“Like the Green Party, which is maintaining a minimum number of voters, maintaining 3% and using that power to tip the balance to one side or the other, either in the electoral part with that small number of votes that it can bring them or in the Congressional part with some congressmen to approve or reject some law,” explains López Martínez.
Carrera Barroso, the UAM academic, agrees with this when he interprets that one scenario for the PRI is to maintain itself through alliances, as the Green Party has done: “The present of the PRI is a party that has to seek alliances, coalitions in order to take off.”
Carrera Barroso also highlights that, for the first time, the PRI does not have coalition power or veto power, “that is to say, the most important decisions of the country from the next legislature can be made between the Green Party, the Labor Party, Citizen Movement and Morena.”
PRI renewal: will Alejandro Moreno’s presence continue?
“Citizens’ disenchantment with the PRI is evident. The PRI is going to disappear, but most likely we will see it (its disappearance) in three or six years. What we are seeing is that the PRI at this moment is a residual party, a party with little political movement,” added Carrera Barroso.
López Martínez points out that the PRI’s negotiating capacity will be what will facilitate its survival.
In recent months, well-known PRI members have left the party due to their differences with “Alito” Moreno. Among the leaders who have left are Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong, Eruviel Ávila, Alejandro Murat, among others who formed the Progressive Front, which supported Sheinbaum’s campaign.
Asked whether this group could eventually form a political party, both experts agree on the complexity of the process. Carrera Barroso explains: “Forming a new political party is one of the most difficult procedures there is. It is a very difficult political mobilization.”
“I don’t think it will be enough for them to form another political party. They are people with a lot of leadership, but not enough to form another political party. In addition, there are many current obstacles to doing so. I think they will sell their leadership to other small parties that find them attractive,” concludes Alejandra Lopez Martinez.
Moreno responded to his critics on July 8 at a conference in which he lashed out at former PRI leaders who criticized the change in the party’s statutes. There he said: “And we will never again allow those rancid profiles of the old regime, beneficiaries of the party, to whom we gave everything, to tarnish the name of the Institutional Revolutionary Party again.”
He criticized the PRI members who left the party and supported the Morena candidate. “We have to say and ask where they were in the campaigns, tell me if they distributed a single flyer nationwide, what they did in favor of the PRI. Do you know what they did? Nothing. They put an end to that burden they carried and hurt our political institution.”
