Since the presidential vacuum occurred, the Lebanese have believed that they are the focus of international and regional attention, and that they are the eyes of countries to elect the next president of the republic. The surprise lies when you sense astonishment in the diplomatic corridors of how the Lebanese rely on the outside to accomplish an internal Lebanese merit. From an observer diplomatic point of view, it is perhaps one of the best opportunities for the Lebanese to agree on their president. What is required, then, is the internal agreement, but its elements are missing due to the lack of communication between the concerned parties. Lebanon has never chosen its president, and its choice was confronted by any of the countries concerned with its file, which refrain from direct intervention except at a price that has not yet been secured.
Externally, Lebanon was and still is seen as a message, an arena for settling scores, or a mailbox, and it still is. A message from the point of view of the Vatican, which is interested in preserving the Christian presence in Lebanon, while France wants to preserve its foothold in the east from the Lebanon Gate and preserve its threatened cultural history. Riyadh may consider exchanging the presidential settlement for the situation in Yemen. As for America, which is comfortable with its situation due to the demarcation it obtained, it has no harm in any president who does not directly belong to Hezbollah. Despite this, Lebanon can make a breach with an internal choice, whose election will be accepted, but the dilemma is inside.
In the stock exchange of nominations, from a diplomatic point of view, the chances of the leader of the “Marada Movement” Suleiman Franjieh are outweighed at the present time and are ahead of others. The circulating names, such as Salah Hanin and Jihad Azour, did not reach a level of seriousness in the proposal, even by its adopters. Two candidacies are being discussed, namely the army commander, General Joseph Aoun, and the president of the Marada. The candidacy of the army commander faces constitutional obstacles due to his need for a constitutional amendment that is unlikely or even impossible in light of the current parliamentary structure and the overwhelming political tension, while the second is disputed and rejected by two main parties, the “Free Patriotic Movement” and the “Lebanese Forces”, and it is difficult for the sponsors of his candidacy to secure the necessary votes for his election. However, the dispute over it from an observer point of view is subject to discussion, whether inside or outside Lebanon. The issue is not a matter of principle for everyone, but it is a supply and demand within a settlement that is required to be comprehensive and not limited to the item of electing the president only.
From the same diplomatic point of view, there is an opposition that affects the principle and another that is subject to supply and demand, and the second is the basis for the approach of Franjieh’s candidacy, which could turn into a “king’s candidate” if Riyadh is convinced and wishes its allies to meet him at the ballot box in the House of Representatives.
What is required is that the opposition, whoever it is, from the Christian blocs, be a partner in making Franjieh’s election and in ruling him. In the opinion of observers, a discussion can be opened regarding Franjieh’s candidacy, because he is currently ahead of the others. Observing diplomatic sources do not see that the candidacy of Representative Michel Moawad will continue, but they do not exclude that the earthquake that struck Syria and Turkey has benefited the presidential elections in Lebanon and restored the Arab openness to the Syrian regime, and the most prominent part in it was the part related to the Saudi-Syrian relationship, which may positively affect the fortunes of Franjieh, Syria’s ally and closest to it among the nominated names, may not be opposed by Riyadh to his arrival in a complete and integrated basket, especially since it will not harm its interests.
According to what the participants in the Paris meeting sensed, Riyadh wants the presidential elections to come within the context of a general agreement that includes the prime ministership. It would not harm her if the Maronite president was close to the opposition party, Kafranjieh, who was invited to the UNESCO party celebrating Taif and sat in the front row. Basically, it wants Iran to file Yemen and Iraq, and it does not mind its presence in the discussion about the file of the presidency in Lebanon, as evidenced by Qatar’s insistence on attending the five-year meeting, which has good relations with Iran. So, the presence of Qatar had its justifications, and it has good relations with Iran, and it insisted on the involvement of Egypt in order to add more crowds to the scene, while everyone knows that its word is the final decision.
According to the same sources, and according to their analysis, Saudi Arabia will not oppose Franjieh’s election, and America will not place a veto on his choice, as evidenced by what US Ambassador Dorothy Shea said to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Had her country’s position been against his election, it would have expressed in a different way. According to her, Lebanon must seize the moment, otherwise the outside world will not notice it, and it will remain on the waiting list as long as the impactful developments proceed at a slow pace.
