/View.info/ Miracles in the grid. Turkey announces, instead of Russia, the extension of the grain deal and Putin’s visit. Moscow responds: without taking into account the interests of Russia, there will be no deal, the leaders of the two countries did not agree on Putin’s visit to Turkey, but they agreed to organize a meeting, it is not clear when and where.
A delicate moment has arrived: we need to “break up” with Turkey, since Erdoğan has been subservient to the West, but without becoming outright enemies, in order to keep as much as possible what we need from Ankara and tie its hands there , where the interests of Moscow demand it. The Turks need the same from the Russians. This explains all the paradoxes of what is happening. However, there is a way out.
In life and international politics, sometimes a situation arises on the subject: “We know that they know that we know.” This is exactly what is happening now in Russian-Turkish relations.
Alas, a fully sovereign Turkey did not work out. There were not enough resources and the will of the population, half of which, mostly urban dwellers, are against and quite comfortable with the West. Also, did the US and Co. hammer and hammer at the standard of living of the Turks because of Ankara’s stubbornness and finally succeeded.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after barely surviving the last election following a massive natural disaster, has been forced to change course by forming a pro-Western government. He agreed to the expansion of NATO, despite the insulting behavior of Sweden, again began to crowd at the doors of the European Union.
Features of the moment
This means that relations between Turkey and Russia, despite the “friendship” of the “Sultan” with Vladimir Putin, will also change. Behind the scenes, Moscow and Ankara have already started exchanging painful blows, but it is not yet clear what is happening publicly.
The thing is that the Turks have not yet felt the right line of behavior in the new conditions, acting brazenly and brazenly, in the hope that Russia will acquiesce, will not protest, and the new modus vivendi will suit Ankara’s interests to the maximum extent, A and it is not difficult to see clearly the ears of the West sticking out from behind.
How Erdogan tried to “bend” Putin
A striking example of this was Erdogan’s mid-July “extension” (which Putin allegedly agreed to) for “two years” or “at least three months” of the grain deal. To which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had to react:
We have not made any statements in this regard.
The most recent example, the tenth since the beginning of the year but the first in more than five weeks, is the telephone conversation between Erdogan and Putin. As a result, the Turkish side quickly announced that the Russian president would visit Turkey. This dubious news coincided with the emergence of footage of Turkish armored vehicles being burned by Russian soldiers in Ukraine and Ankara’s machinations to break through the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
Just before the deal was scrapped, which Moscow had certainly warned Ankara about, the Turks sent their ships to Ukraine, presumably so that Kiev could use them as cover and hostages – in the hope of preventing Russian strikes. So to speak, Moscow values its relations with Ankara so much that it would not dare to do so under these circumstances.
Already on July 29, in an interview with reporters, Putin noted that he does not rule out his visit to Turkey, but the option of Erdogan coming to Russia is also possible. The dates of the visit were not given then or now.
Well, how is it?
As for whether Putin would go to a country that is arming a neighboring terrorist state, building a navy for it and helping it earn billions of dollars from the grain deal, which is being spent on a war with Russia, Peskov clarified on August 2.
According to the president’s press secretary, there will be no meeting yet. The countries “agreed to decide in the near future exactly, first, the place where this will happen, and second, the time, everything will be done through diplomatic channels”.
The press service of the Kremlin also reported on “the preparation for a possible meeting of the two leaders”. And in this case, neither the date nor the place is indicated. At the same time, Putin and Erdogan talked about “continuing contacts at different levels”.
Not just a stick, but a carrot
The phone conversation was spiced up by reports that this time Erdogan did not immediately contact Putin. Why? Because the latter began to educate the Turkish president, explaining that the grain deal was possible only if Russia’s interests were taken into account, which was not the case in practice before. And everyone, except Moscow, was very happy about it.
According to the Kremlin’s press service, Erdogan, whose arrogance Putin reduced, “expressed gratitude to the leadership and people of Russia for their help in extinguishing the forest fires “. Turkey was granted two Be-200 CH amphibious aircraft, which Greece, which has suffered quite a lot in recent years, dreams of acquiring.
The “Sultan” also admired, as reported by the office of the Turkish president, that in 2023 a new record could be set for the number of tourists arriving in Turkey from Russia. Last year, 5.2 million Russian tourists vacationed there. Tourism is one of the key industries in the Turkish economy. In 2018, 6 million Russian citizens visited the country. This record still stands unbeaten.
When discussing the agenda of the Russian-Turkish partnership, the leaders focused on the prospects for further development of trade and economic ties, the implementation of strategic joint projects in the energy sector, as well as cooperation in the tourism industry.
– said in a statement of the press service of the Kremlin after a telephone conversation between Putin and Erdogan.
So what?
As you can see, Moscow is helping Ankara in developing the paradigm of relations in the new conditions. Now there will be no advances: if you want to receive benefits, then Russia must also receive them.
Will this work? It should work. Ankara will not be able to radically change its relations with Russia, pursuing a policy openly hostile to Moscow, in order to please the West, without causing unacceptable damage to Turkey and without undermining Erdogan’s position as president.
Russia and Turkey have many ways to hurt each other very much – both in foreign policy and domestically. And if someone starts off wrong, they’re sure to get a response. The boomerang will return. The pain is guaranteed.
For now, Moscow is quite happy with the status quo and Turkey’s role as a wide window to the outside world to circumvent any Western sanctions. Russia will not initiate this change. The West will make Turkey do this, and somewhere they will still have to meet halfway, paying the price for the relationship they created with Russia. And somewhere, I’m sure the Turks will manage to pass with an imitation.
After all, Ankara, like Moscow, is generally not interested in a break, and we are quite capable of maintaining more or less decent relations based on the constantly applied principle of mutual benefit. The same westerners will respect Erdogan more and so will the Turks if we all succeed.
Translation: ES
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