There is a bit of rumbling around the Russian president. Recently, a number of confidants had to leave, including General Roman Gavrilov. “He would have been fired because he opposed Putin’s battle plans,” says Russia expert Hubert Smeets. And yesterday, Anatoly Chubais, who has played an important role in Russia for twenty years, was said to have been spotted in Istanbul.
–
–
Hubert Smeets also mentions another example: Sergej Beseda. He would have been placed under house arrest. “It is no coincidence that it is precisely Beseda who should have made sure that Russia got spies in important places in Ukraine who could pass on information. Perhaps that information was not valid or he failed to set up the network.”
Much to lose
Who then remains in the circle around Putin? Smeets has a suspicion: “Putin will mainly surround himself with a group of confidants and officials that he has sometimes known for decades.” He knows most of them from his time at the KGB, the main secret service of the former Soviet Union.
–
–
“You can assume that they support Putin’s plans,” says Smeets. “Because if you don’t, you can lose a lot.” In this way the fallen leaders lose their power, but also the financial support from the Kremlin. “That’s why Putin’s confidants think twice before contradicting him.”
Insufficiently informed
So no one will change Putin’s mind. And that is a danger. “One of the biggest threats to dictators is that they are no longer objectively informed about what is going on.” This is also called a dictator trap mentioned. That is an English term for the phenomenon that dictators start to make mistakes, because they are no longer sufficiently informed.
That danger also threatens Putin. With a selective group of the same confidants, Putin becomes less and less well-informed about the war he is waging, says Smeets. And then Putin could also miss out on crucial information.
–
–
The group of pumpjacks formed by Putin himself can therefore become a pitfall for him. “Take the Ukrainian opposition. The Kremlin underestimated it.” According to Smeets, there are two possible reasons for this: “Either the security services were insufficiently informed, or they did not dare to tell Putin.”
Putin’s policies, for example, appear to be a danger to himself. But it doesn’t stop there: “If he is insufficiently informed and finds out what is going on or if he has setbacks again, he can do crazy things.” And even in that case, probably no one around Putin will slow him down.
–
–
Eva Hartog: ‘Confidants are mainly subjects’
Putin tries to show the outside world that everything is going according to plan, but we see cracks and tears, says Russia correspondent Eva Hartog. “It is not all as beautiful as Putin would have us and the Russian people believe.”
So far, none of Putin’s confidants have publicly distanced themselves from the president. But that does not mean that nothing is happening behind the scenes, Hartog emphasizes. “We just don’t get to hear it. There is a lot of speculation about the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoygu. He reappeared yesterday, but he was gone for almost two weeks. There are signs and signals that there is unrest within the elite.”
“We always thought that Putin had a small group of people around him who advised him,” Hartog says. “But it now appears that there is much more hierarchy where one person makes all decisions without being advised: Putin. His confidants are mainly his subjects.”
That was very well reflected on February 21: that was the last time that Putin, with his confidants, was seen on Russian TV. “Something really stood out: Putin acted very powerful and the people around him appeared very insecure and anxious. For example, one of the powerful men, a spy boss, started to stutter. This shows that one person makes all the decisions, without to consult.”
–
–
