Nobody expected that at the coronation ceremony of Charles III in May 2023 a woman would manage to steal the limelight from the monarch himself. As Speaker of the House of Commons and Speaker of the Council, Penny Mordaunt, had to hold the more than 3.5kg Sword of State – the heaviest in the royal collection – for 50 minutes. Her feat earned her admiration on both sides of the Atlantic. The question now is: will she be the next British prime minister?
In the run-up to a general election, it might seem crazy for a party to change its leader at the last minute. But anything is possible when talking about the Conservative Party. All polls predict that, after more than 14 years in power, they will lose the elections. And in a desperate turn, the ranks would be considering the possibility of forcing the departure of Rishi Sunak to put Mordaunt as a candidate. They did not hesitate to get rid of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. They could now repeat the script.
The latest polls reveal that support for the party has fallen to its lowest lows since the chaotic days of the short-lived Truss, who sent the pound crashing in autumn 2022 with the most radical tax cut plan since 1972. It did not come to spend two months in Downing Street.
Sunak took over with a promise to get the economy back on track. And he is doing it. But not even the fact that inflation has gone from double digits to the current 3.4%, the lowest figure recorded since September 2021, has managed to boost his popularity.
What is worrying is no longer the 25 points advantage that the Labor opposition has, but rather that the “Tories” only have four points ahead of the Reform Party founded by the controversial populist Nigel Farage, protagonist of the victory of Brexit. The defection of the former president of the Conservative Party, Lee Anderson, to the ranks of the Reform Party has been a true humiliation.
On the other hand, the seven defeats suffered last week by the Government in the House of Lords with the processing of the controversial immigration law to send asylum seekers arriving through irregular routes to Rwanda has made the situation even worse.
Aware of the importance of immigration for the electorate, Sunak has made the Rwanda Plan one of the pillars of the legislature. His objective was to finish the processing of the bill before Easter, to have the first flight before the May elections. But the calendar is now impossible.
In this context, as revealed by “The Spectator”, a bible for the “Tories”, “parliamentarians are seriously discussing the pros and cons of changing leaders.” The discontent is not limited to Sunak’s usual critics. No one believes that a new leader would save the Conservatives from defeat at the polls, but at least “they hope to reduce the tsunami to a mere flood.” In the circles, the name of Mordaunt – at the time she was the first woman to head the Ministry of Defense – rings loudly. As a naval reservist, she has credibility among the conservative right because she pushed for increased defense spending. But, against her, is the fact that she has already tried to run in primaries twice without success.
The only advantage for Sunak is that there is no obvious rival. However, MPs are wondering if the prime minister is really the best option to lead the campaign ahead of the local elections on May 2. A setback in this appointment with the polls could increase the possibilities of forcing his departure. At the moment, there is still no official date for the next general elections, whose legal deadline is January 2025. Taking into account that the United Kingdom acts as host at the next summit of the European Political Community on July 18 – which will be held at Blenheim Palace, birthplace of Winston Churchill – it is presumed in any case that the general elections will be in the autumn.
In Downing Street, all these conspiracy theories generate unease. Number 10 is not a sealed bunker. Sunak’s team knew from the start that the odds were against them. But they also continue to believe that, once the Conservatives think through the options, they will conclude that a fourth prime minister in four years would be a folly from which the party may never recover. However, no one rules out any scenario.
After the closed-door meeting that Sunak held in mid-March with the 1922 Committee – which brings together Tories without a portfolio – all kinds of comments were then leaked to the press. Some deputies consider that Mordaunt has no chance and that the rumors to appoint a new leader are “absurd.” Others, however, emphasize: “if you hear the safety pin fall to the ground, it means I still have the grenade in my hand.”
2024-03-31 02:00:08
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