Although NATO’s 32 member states possess enormous amounts of weapons and soldiers, NATO is not in a situation where the member states have put their military forces on standby.
While Russia is fighting a high-intensity war, has hundreds of thousands of heavily armed soldiers in action, and has put the country’s industry on a war footing, there are few signs that the rest of Europe has taken steps to be prepared for a possible Russian attack.
Read all about the war in Ukraine here
It is true that several NATO and EU countries agree to accelerate the production of ammunition both for Ukraine and for their own use, but these are very time-consuming processes. NATO’s rapid reaction force is probably not enough to respond to an attack on a larger scale. However, a fully mobilized NATO will be a formidable opponent.
– Then NATO countries will be woefully small, few and vulnerable
– Is Nato sufficiently prepared for a conflict with Russia, or is the alliance behind and out of balance?
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– No, NATO is not very well prepared. There are two problems here, as I see it. First, the alliance is unable to adapt quickly enough to the limited Russian military threat. Partly because not enough money is allocated, and partly because the European members are not good enough to work together. They operate best separately. But then the members become woefully small, few and vulnerable in the meeting with the world’s largest country, answers Tormod Heier.
According to the professor at the Norwegian Defense Academy, hybrid threats and hybrid warfare are more likely scenarios than the classic army-against-army war. But hybrid attacks can also be a prelude to further escalation, ultimately full-scale war.
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– NATO is far too concerned with the worst imaginable
– NATO is far too preoccupied with the worst imaginable, which is a third world war with Russia. NATO thus forgets to include the most likely scenario. It is not a Russian attack against NATO’s military forces, but hybrid attacks against the civil society of the many small and large NATO members, points out Heier.
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He believes the so-called hybrid threats from Russia will affect the physical and digital infrastructure in municipalities, cities and densely built-up areas where people live.
– The Russians will affect the will of the citizens by stirring up inflamed conflict lines, such as immigration, the rights of the indigenous population, wind power, green transition, for or against American bases in Norway, warns Tormod Heier.
– Then NATO’s military defense capability will crack
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Photo: Virginia Mayo / AP / NTB Photo: NTB
He believes that many NATO countries are vulnerable because the military capability is strongly linked to a well-functioning civil society, in contrast to countries with more authoritarian features.
– If the robustness of civil society is not strengthened, NATO’s military defense capability will also crack and weather. Not because of Russian forces. But from within their own organization, without the Russians having fired a single shot. That is because the operational capability of NATO forces rests on well-functioning civil society. For example, from well-functioning healthcare companies, Telenor, Bring, Norgesgruppen, Avinor, the Coastal Administration and the Customs Agency, to name a few. It is a bit strange that Nordic Response 2024 did not include more civilian actors in the exercise in March, Heier believes.
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Don’t think Ukraine will fall
– If Ukraine seems to fall into Putin’s hands, what will NATO do then?
– Then Nato will be forced to spend even more money on defence, which means that the defense budgets will perhaps rise to the levels the member states had during the Cold War, at between three and five per cent of gross national product. It may also be that the defense industry will have to be built up even more, and that the increases we see today are just the beginning of the beginning.
– Most likely Ukraine will not fall because the country is too big, the population too big and the soldiers too many for Russia to gain territorial control over Europe’s second largest country. The point for the Ukrainians is just to wage a form of war that does not take place on Russian terms while they wait for the West to increase ammunition production, points out Heier.
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– It may be that the USA will be under more pressure
Ukrainian soldiers of Ukraine’s 126th Brigade fire a D-30 howitzer at Russian troops in the Kherson region on March 12, 2024. Photo: Rfe/rl/serhii Nuzhnenko / Reuters
He also sees a risk in Europe having to defend itself and take greater responsibility for its own security if the US has to deal with a crisis in Taiwan, or if Trump comes to power again.
– It may be that the USA will be under more pressure since they must both deal with a crisis in Europe and a growing Chinese challenge in Southeast Asia. This may in part lead to an increased reliance on American nuclear weapons in the European defense plans since there are not enough American conventional forces available for two major wars at the same time. Or it could lead to the conclusion of new agreements and understandings between Chinese, Russian and American heads of state if a new Republican head of state comes to power in the United States. Nobody knows, notes the lieutenant colonel.
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– Then it could escalate to nuclear war
– How realistic is it that Nato, or individual countries in the alliance, will send forces to Ukraine?
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– The realism of such force contributions is greater today than it was a year ago. However, such troop contributions are controversial because they break a boundary which states that Western soldiers should not meet Russian forces in the field. Then it could escalate to nuclear war. For NATO to take such a risk is unacceptable, for example Germany will claim. But through a looser ad hoc coalition of like-minded Western states, such an option will be less risky than previously thought. In this way, individual countries in Nato will be able to create their own coalitions, which outside the allied framework, assemble and transfer forces to Ukraine.
– Possible new summer offensive in May-June
Professor at the Norwegian Defense College, Tormod Heier. Photo: Ole Berg-rusten / NTB
Heier believes that this strategy will be important for any participating countries for several different reasons.
– Partly to prevent the Ukrainian defence, and the defensive defense positions in Donbas, from weathering and collapsing under pressure from Russian forces, who may want to launch a new summer offensive in May-June, when the ground in Eastern Ukraine has dried up after the spring break. Something like this could, in the longer term, reduce the security of many other neighboring countries in Eastern Europe, Heier believes.
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– Will strengthen the country’s leadership role, status and prestige
He believes that from France’s point of view it would be appropriate to step in for Western forces to be deployed on Ukrainian soil.
– For France, such an option will also strengthen the country’s leadership role, status and prestige in Europe. Not least by having a head of state who elevates French diplomacy and military power into a European leadership role. This could be important, seen from French eyes, if it turns out that Europe’s big brother in the west, the United States, gradually steps down its role as the West’s leading star in the Ukraine war after the presidential election in November, sums up Tormod Heier.
2024-03-31 09:37:01
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