The corona pandemic still has the world under control, but there are first glimmers of hope: In Europe, vaccinations against the virus are running. What this development in the fight against Sars-CoV-2 means for summer vacation and travel in 2021.
“The vaccinations are a glimmer of hope,” says futurologist and tourism expert Andreas Reiter about the 2021 vacation. However, it depends on which trips are involved. “We will be able to travel relatively well within Europe again in the summer, albeit with certain conditions,” predicts Reiter. This means tests. If you go to the Mediterranean, for example, a test may be required as proof, as the expert says. Vaccination records could also be an issue. After all, no country wants to risk a good development with regard to the pandemic.
Travel law: What to consider when booking
Legally, there are also a few things to consider: “You can certainly not book without hesitation, because it is currently impossible to predict what the pandemic situation will be like in summer,” says the Viennese lawyer Martin Alt, whose specialty is travel law. “Those who book for the summer today have to be aware that there is a certain risk.” And what should you pay attention to from a legal point of view when booking? The expert’s advice is: The most important thing is that the potential holidaymaker knows who his contract partner or tour operator is. With various international booking portals, this is often difficult or impossible to understand. In the event of a dispute, you have to run after your money, as Alt announces.
Read here: The current corona measures at a glance
It is therefore better to book directly with known European tour operators or with a travel agency. With a package tour you are on the safer side because you have one contact person for the entire trip, including flight, accommodation and transport. You should also take a close look at insurance. It is possible that you take out insurance that does not even cover the pandemic risk. It is good to know that if you, as a traveler, consider the situation to be too dangerous, but the government of the holiday country gives the go-ahead, you are not entitled to a refund. “In most cases, you have to bear the cancellation costs yourself. Except when it becomes unreasonable. In such a situation, that has to be clarified in court,” says the travel law expert. To minimize risk, individual travelers should book their flight directly with the airlines or the trip via a reputable booking portal where the contractual partner is known.
The lawyer has three more tips for the summer vacation 2021: Travelers who want to book at the beginning of the year should only pay the deposit. Because only this is secured at the time. In addition, special cancellation conditions can be agreed in the travel agency, such as a free cancellation up to two weeks before departure. These conditions must be set out in writing in the contract. If you have a right to a refund, you have this in cash in Austria and you do not have to accept any vouchers.
Dream vacation in Thailand still a long way off
Outside of Europe, travel in 2021 does not look very rosy for Austrians: “We cannot travel transcontinental this year anyway. That will follow in 2022 or 2023 at the earliest,” says futurologist Andreas Reiter. This means trips to Asia, for example Thailand, or North America. When transcontinental travel is possible again depends on many different factors, but above all it is due on the one hand to extremely strict security measures such as in Asia and the sometimes catastrophic conditions due to the corona crisis such as in America.
© Oliver Wolf
Futurologist Andreas Reiter
»It will take until 2023 for Chinese mass tourism to return to Hallstatt«
According to Reiter, there will be individual transcontinental flights or flight connections, but not yet mass tourism as was the case before the pandemic. This also has to do with the fact that it simply takes time for countries, airlines and airports to start up again. The latter have suffered enormous financial losses as a result of the Corona crisis: Eurocontrol, the central coordination of air traffic control in Europe, expects that Europe’s aviation industry will only recover slowly this year. In 2020 there was a loss of around 6.1 million flights. In 2021, experts expect only 51 percent of air traffic as it took place before the Corona crisis. According to Reiter, Austrians will not be able to travel to any travel destination outside of Europe in 2021 and vice versa. “It will take until 2023 for Chinese mass tourism to reach Hallstatt again,” says the expert.
Also read: How long a vaccination can protect
What role the vaccination record will play
The futurologist assumes that vaccination records will be indispensable in the next few years, especially on international flights outside Europe. However, it does not rule out that the countries in Europe also rely on the vaccination certificate, for example for formats such as cruises or certain air travel. According to futurologists, this would then have to be decided across the EU. The vaccination certificate could be a useful option “if politicians notice that the patchwork of measures is counterproductive,” says Reiter. An exact assessment is still difficult at the present time.
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How Corona affects travel costs
“Traveling is getting more expensive, there is no question about that,” says Reiter. The low-cost airlines will suffer massively because they will have to fly much more often in order to survive at the low prices. According to the experts, only a few big names like Ryanair or Easyjet will remain of the low-cost airlines. “Fly to London for breakfast for 40 euros – these cheap trips will no longer exist,” predicts the futurologist. Travel will also become more expensive in relation to hotel operations and other operations such as cable cars. You currently have to meet costly requirements in the form of hygiene and safety concepts. The companies have to pass these costs on to the customer. Above all, one has to worry about the city hotel industry, often tenants still have to pay the rent even though they already have no money. Holiday hotels, which are mostly family businesses, are comparatively better off. Hotel chains are an exception, but they too do not hold out in the long run. According to various forecasts, 10 to 20 percent of bankruptcies in Austrian tourism will affect the city hotel industry, depending on the destination.
Greener and more urban: this is what travel could look like in 2021
And there is a second turnaround, a shift in awareness towards ecological travel. These consumers prefer the train within around 800 kilometers in Europe. As a result, city trips are no longer made so heavily with scheduled flights if there is a good train connection there instead. In Europe, night train connections in particular are currently being greatly expanded. Together with other European countries such as Switzerland, Germany and France, ÖBB wants to restart the night jets. In the next few years, an additional 13 European cities with over a million inhabitants are to be added as travel destinations. “That will boost city tourism again, but it will be more ecological and climate-friendly,” says Reiter. He also sees another development in the vacation sector: the gap between the expensive luxury segment and the discount segment is widening. In the high-price country of Austria, 4-star hotels will be able to hold their own. In countries like Turkey, which are increasingly relying on mass tourism, cheap destinations will boom, all-inclusive at 340 euros. “Getting good products at a decent price will be more difficult,” predicts the tourism expert. And what effects does Corona have on travel? Pure business tourism will collapse and experience losses of at least 30 percent, Reiter estimates. Flying from Vienna to Berlin for a meeting is done thanks to video calls, the companies save money here and thus also meet the ecological zeitgeist. On the other hand, congress tourism, meetings and smaller festivals will play a role again from autumn 2021. During the pandemic in the cities, the topic of outdoors and exercise in nature has increasingly come into focus. That will also affect summer vacation planning.
Which countries offer themselves as travel destinations
Last year the classics for Austria were Croatia and Italy. And these nearby countries will again be the main destinations for Austrians in summer 2021, Reiter announced. Conversely, Austria will be an important travel destination for other neighboring European countries. “I don’t see the first major reassurance until late summer, in August and September,” says the futurologist. Only then is there a corresponding vaccination rate. Traveling at Easter will not be possible yet, but it will slowly build up from then on.