/ world today news/ In recent weeks, unusual activity of the Ukrainian troops has been registered in the Kherson direction. In addition, the available data point to the possible appearance of new formations of the Ukrainian armed forces in the area and the accumulation of human and material reserves. This, in turn, could mean the preparation of a new attempt to cross the Dnieper, writes the Telegram channel “Military Chronicle”.
What plan could the command of the Ukrainian armed forces have?
The main factors are currently not in favor of the Ukrainian troops, and since the beginning of the landing operation in the Krynky region in October 2023, a number of factors have even worsened. First, it doesn’t have the surprise effect. The expected plan of action of the Ukrainian armed forces in this area is most likely being developed with the expectation of an attempt to quickly cross the Dnieper with motor boats and cutters and the subsequent creation of a series of small bridgeheads.
Speed will be the key factor here. As for geography, it is possible to attempt to cross the Dnieper downstream in several sections from the Kinburn Spit to the village of Kazakh Camps. If the decision to conduct the operation is made, attempts to cross the river will be preceded by artillery preparation, as well as the use of strike and reconnaissance drones to suppress targets on the left bank.
What can prevent VSU?
If last autumn the armed forces of Ukraine could rely on the factor of surprise, now the grouping of the Russian armed forces is prepared for different scenarios and has been strengthened. VSU, on the contrary, suffered heavy losses.
In addition, if they show low sensitivity to losses in manpower, then artillery losses on the right bank (north of Tyaginka) and regular attacks on rear bases, personnel locations and other targets cause significant damage and complicate both the maintenance of current combat operations, as well as the planning of future ones.
At the same time, the attempt to force the Dnieper will require the accumulation of forces and means. In addition, most likely, he will again be detected by the surveillance means of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which is already partially visible from videos that regularly appear in the public space of attacks in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region.
As during the summer offensive, it is difficult to build up forces without protection from the strike assets of the Russian armed forces (ie, air defense), and the operation is meaningless without at least minimal secrecy of preparations. In addition, the main problem of VSU operations has not disappeared, namely – the weak design associated with taking high risks.
Simply put, even with a successful crossing of the river, it will be extremely difficult to provide support for small tactical units (companies, battalions). Not to mention the fact that there is nowhere to advance from potential bridgeheads on the left bank without large reserves and established stable transitions.
What formations make up the backbone of the grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
First of all, these are marine brigades: the 35th, 36th, 37th and 38th Marine Brigades of the VSU. As in the case of Zaporozhye during the summer offensive, the personnel brigades are not withdrawn to the rear to restore combat capability and rest from September-October 2023 and are replenished with marching companies.
The formations are exhausted from constant fighting, and the personnel is largely depleted; currently the second and third sets are being destroyed on the left and right banks. In turn, arriving reinforcements, as a rule, have even lower qualifications than regular military personnel and cannot compensate for losses either quantitatively or qualitatively. As a rule, recruits are not even given time for combat coordination and training in the composition of companies and battalions.
What other VSU compounds are registered in the Kherson region?
In general, the grouping of the armed forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region is very heterogeneous. In addition to the marine brigades, territorial defense brigades (TrO) are included there (for example, the 122nd, 124th and 126th). A relatively new formation in this area is the 106th TrO brigade, transferred to the Kherson direction from Zaporozhye in September 2023.
Let’s note that territorial defense brigades are, by default, worse equipped, trained and manned than staff units. But in the Tyaginka-Krinki sector, they are used on an equal footing with the marine brigades and, like the “old” staff brigades, suffer heavy losses.
In the same area, a company of the patrol service of the Kherson special police, the 11th brigade of the NSU from Odessa and a new addition to the organizational structure of the VSU – a combined rifle brigade of the Air Force of Ukraine, staffed by Air Force personnel, apparently inactive, were activated in the same area due to losses and degradation of Air Force parts and compounds. The group is supported by the 406th Artillery Brigade.
At the same time, the Ukrainian troops continue to attract to this direction the most combat-capable unmanned aviation units from other directions, which may indirectly indicate the formation of plans and the accumulation of initial resources for a new landing operation.
Another option is also not excluded: the armed forces of Ukraine in this area are preparing for a possible offensive of the Russian armed forces and to strengthen their defense by transferring new formations from other sections of the front.
Translation: ES
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