Politics Center / Reported by Xiao Youchen
▲ Wei An believes that it is impossible for the CCP to attack Taiwan by force. There are 8 key factors. (Schematic diagram / flipped from Facebook @中国国国海截)
The relationship between Taiwan and the United States has gradually deepened in recent years, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait has also become tense. The hawks in Beijing have never stopped clamoring at me, and the theory of using force to violate Taiwan has become more and more vivid. In this regard, senior media person Wei An believes that there are “eight key factors” that make it impossible for the CCP to attack Taiwan by force, but the possibility of partial and short-term military conflicts still exists.
Wei An pointed out that a careful study of the internal political and economic situation of the Beijing regime, the international political environment, and the gains and losses of various practical interests will reveal that a comprehensive armed attack on Taiwan with the purpose of unification, rule, and occupation on the other side can be said at this stage. There is no motive or reason. And because those in power in Beijing want to achieve “unification” by force, the internal political benefits they have obtained are simply insignificant compared with the costs and risks they have to bear.
Wei An said that the current non-military “eight key factors” make the CCP’s military attack on Taiwan in pursuit of “unification” a hypothesis that completely deviates from reality. Including “centralized and undemocratic political system”, “lessons from the Russo-Ukraine war”, “international sanctions hit the economy hard”, “key players in Taiwan’s technology industry chain”, “self-injury to the mainland economy”, “accelerated isolation and containment” , “The risk of a drastic change in public opinion in the mainland”, “the unaffordable high cost of governance”.
Wei An said frankly that although the possibility of the CCP attacking Taiwan by force is very small, the possibility of partial and short-term cross-strait military conflicts still exists. The premise is that when some major friction or crisis breaks out between the two sides of the strait, the legitimacy of the CCP regime’s rule has been endangered, or its authority in the hearts of the people has been shaken.
Wei An said that for the sake of various practical interests and political stability, the CCP has more reasons to avoid a full-scale war across the Taiwan Strait. Its desire to maintain the current peace is far stronger than that of any other country. Because if a war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, the biggest political and economic victims would obviously be China and the CCP regime.
