Discussion in Olten about Switzerland with 10 million people: Is immigration more of a curse or a blessing?
What would be the opportunities, challenges or problems that a Switzerland with 10 million people would have to overcome? The Solothurn Chamber of Commerce had an expert and two political figures discuss it. They didn’t agree.
Patrick Leisibach from Avenir Suisse gave a thorough explanation of the current situation in Switzerland in terms of economic growth and immigration.
Switzerland has barely reached the 9 million people mark this year when the so-called 10 million Switzerland is already on everyone’s lips. This is not without reason: the population increase from 8 to 9 million happened in just twelve years – a pace that which last took place in the 1960s.
Patrick Leisibach from the think tank Avenir Suisse recalled this at an event organized by the Solothurn Chamber of Commerce on Thursday morning in the Oltner “Magazin”. The topic: the challenges and opportunities of a Switzerland of 10 million.
“Switzerland is worried,” he said. In surveys, two thirds of people in this country say they are skeptical about the future. And as in the 1960s, growth is leading to a discussion of the issue of migration.
Economy is the main driver of immigration
Where is immigration actually a problem? Where are the concerns not justified? Patrick Leisibach managed to shed light on these questions using various data. He stated: Switzerland is only growing because of immigration, clearly driven by the needs of the economy. Every second immigrant comes with an employment contract. Two thirds of them come from the EU.
Compared to neighboring countries, immigration to Switzerland is much more driven by the labor market. In addition, labor migration hardly creates any problems with integration. Countries like Italy, France and Germany envy Switzerland. It is comparatively a privilege to discuss growth.
In order to move forward and cope with structural change, a critical number of entrepreneurs and skilled workers are always needed. “Switzerland can only do this with immigration. Our demographics are too weak for our economic strength.”
Patrick Leisibach from Avenir Suisse during his presentation in Olten.
Patrick Leisibach also recalled: A good 80 percent of the companies listed on the Swiss stock exchange were founded by foreigners. These are companies like Nestlé, ABB and Sika, but also the large pharmaceutical companies like Lonza and Novartis. The pharmaceutical and chemical industries in particular are currently the major drivers of economic growth. A similar picture prevails among start-ups. Without immigration there would hardly be any innovations in Switzerland.
This economic performance is responsible for prosperity. According to data from Avenir Suisse, people in Switzerland today earn more and work less than at the beginning of the millennium. In addition, a generational contract like the AHV essentially implies a need for growth, otherwise pensions could not be financed at all.
“We are managing growth poorly”
But Patrick Leisibach also mentioned the dark sides. “We are managing growth poorly.” The resistance to densification in the centers leads to urban sprawl. One of the consequences of this is the disproportionate growth in traffic.
“We are feeling the bottlenecks more and more,” he said, and when the infrastructure is expanded, the locals also bear the costs. “With the high pace of immigration, we are entering the area where the cost-benefit analysis of growth becomes less positive.”
It is likely that people from third countries will have to immigrate in the future in order to meet the demand for qualified workers. “The integration might then look different than it does today,” where the majority of people from Europe are still joining.
Should immigration be controlled differently? If yes, how? Patrick Leisibach warned at the end: “The elephant in the room is the free movement of people.” However, he does not see a protective clause as suitable. It would either be too soft or too hard, “which would definitely cause damage.”
Many guests at the Solothurn Chamber of Commerce podium on 10 million Switzerland in the Oltner “Magazin”.
A problem or a challenge?
In the subsequent discussion, Green National Councilor Aline Trede was compared to SVP National Councilor Benjamin Giezendanner. The Bernese from the left half of the council, daughter of a German immigrant, tried to change the negative narrative on the immigration issue.
“They are not problems, they are challenges,” she said. 150 years ago Switzerland was a country of emigration, today the country is doing well and is therefore attractive for immigration. “I think that’s what we want after all.”
The discussion was moderated by Rolf Schmid, Head of Economic Development for the Olten Region.
Benjamin Giezendanner would not reject migration per se, said moderator Rolf Schmid, head of economic development for the Olten region. The entrepreneur from Rothrist confirmed: “We need people,” but not people “who go directly to social welfare.”
Ideally, it seemed, he would like cross-border commuters who come to work during the day and disappear again in the evening. «We have many here. Without them it wouldn’t work. And they don’t put a strain on our infrastructure.” Benjamin Giezendanner also suggested starting with the universities and “seeing which training courses we finance” so that there is no longer a shortage of highly qualified specialists.
“It’s all connected”
Patrick Leisibach, on the other hand, is critical of bringing primarily highly qualified people to Switzerland: “I don’t know whether the pharmaceutical researcher will come if no one looks after their children or serves their food in the catering industry. It’s all connected.”
Finally, the idea of a residence fee for foreign employees was raised, which companies would also pay for. “Only the sectors with high added value could finance this,” replied Benjamin Giezendanner. “We wouldn’t have solved the problem with taxes.” He therefore promoted the SVP’s initiative, which wants to limit immigration. «I think you have to set a limit. After that we can still discuss.”
They took part in the podium on 10 million Switzerland in Olten. From left: Patrick Leisibach (Avenir Suisse), Aline Trede (Greens), Benjamin Giezendanner (SVP) and moderator Rolf Schmid.
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