Is Europe Dying? Insights and Analysis on the Future of the European Union

Europe is at the heart of the program this time. Today, May 1, marks 20 years since Latvia joined the European Union, achieving the goal it has been striving for for many years. This was one of the largest expansions of the union – a total of 10 countries joined that day. It was a cycle of opportunities that Latvia took advantage of, as the enthusiasm for expansion into Europe gradually faded away. For several years, the Union has not received anyone, although nine countries are already milling around their doors in the hope of joining this bloc.

One of the reasons why there has been suspicion in the European Union about getting into countries is the decision-making process, which requires consensus in deciding many cases. The more I decide, the harder it is to reach a result. But, of course, this is not the only reason. The French president spoke this week about the death of the European Union, which could happen if he cannot accept the changing situation. We want to talk about all this today, looking at what has happened, is happening and will happen in the European Union in the coming years.

Doctor of historical sciences speaking Ojar Ant and a lecturer at the Latvian National Defense Academy Janis Kapustans.

Europe is deadly…

Last Thursday, in an hour and a half speech at Sorbonne University, French President Emmanuel Macron said: “Europe is dying. He can die. It just depends on our preferences. And those choices must be made now. “

The owner of the Elysée Palace pointed out the main reasons for the weakness of Europe, which were clearly revealed by the events of recent years: trust in China as a supplier of consumer goods, the delegation of defense supplies to the United States and the free use of Russian resources energy Slowness in dealing with the challenges of the century can be fatal for Europe – other global forces can weaken it or even put it in an unequal position. What then, according to Macron, should be done? Europe must lose its excessive fear of protecting its internal market and deliberately invest public money in strategic development sectors, as the United States and China do make These areas include artificial intelligence, quantum computing, space exploration, biotechnology and new forms of energy. As another priority directive, the president outlined the European defense initiative, of which the integrated anti-aircraft defense shield should be the most important decoration. Europe must continue to implement the “green course”, a unique energy transition program worldwide, and build an even more integrated energy market. “Energy is decarbonized [normāla] guarantee of climate, sovereignty and employment,” Macron said.

On Monday, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, echoed the French leader in an interview with a group of journalists during the enlargement of the European Union in 2004. He admitted that “all projects mortal democratic by nature”, but he immediately inspired hope – that Europe has the strength and the weapons to face the challenges. It is undoubtedly clear that the European Union needs major reforms for this purpose, and the most discussed one is the changes in the decision-making mechanism of the European Council, to be abandoning the principle of unanimity altogether or greatly reducing it and providing the qualified certificate instead. majority This would prevent destructive leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Orban or his potential ally, newly minted Slovak Prime Minister Fico, from maintaining all European involvement hostile to their treatment and intentions and effectively ignoring the values ​​on which the union was founded.

European waiting room

Yesterday, April 30, news came from Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, about a new escalation in the conflict between security structures and protesters who do not want to approve the “Russian Law”, as it is officially called the Foreign Influence Publisher Law. It seems that the ruling party “Georgia’s Dream” hopes to use it to fight against and stay in power in the upcoming elections in the fall.

The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, has already clearly stated that the law is incompatible with Georgia’s desire to join the European Union. It just looks like the gray cardinal of Tbilisi’s ruling party, the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, has stepped on the slippery path that Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych once walked, claiming that he wanted rapprochement with the European Union, but really dragging his country into the field. of Russian influence. No need to be reminded again how it ended for Yanukovych, Ukraine, Russia and Europe – now the Ukrainian nation is paying with blood and suffering for its desire for Euro-orientation, and we do not want to doubt that this price will be there. included in the accession negotiations process.

In the interview announced on Monday in Brussels, Charles Michel, when asked about the views on the expansion of the union, announced: “2030. we have to be ready for it. What is the alternative? If the idea is to drag it into the next decades, it means that we are sending a message to China and Russia that this neighborhood of ours is reserved for them as a playground.”

As you know, the smallest country in Ukraine Moldova, five countries of the Western Balkans – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia and North Macedonia – are currently in the status of candidate countries of the European Union, which as well as Ukraine and Georgia. Turkey’s decades-old claim has yet to be officially withdrawn. Of the countries mentioned, Montenegro seems to be the closest to joining at the moment, in relation to the possible accession year – 2028 already announced that the biggest problem since the introduction of the euro is that Montenegro is unilaterally using its internal payment methods. Albania’s prospects also look very positive, as it seems that the tough initial entry that France and the Netherlands had to get in has been overcome. Since North Macedonia adopted its current name in 2018, Greece has withdrawn its veto on joining, but there is no real clarity on Bulgaria’s position, at is disagreement with North Macedonia in terms of history and identity. The Bulgarian and Macedonian languages ​​are very close, the two neighboring countries have a great heritage of common history, and their treatment is not a reason for disagreement. Bosnia and Herzegovina only recently received official candidate status – in 2022 – and the possible entry is hindered by the country’s political structure, which is actually a very loose confederation.

Serbia’s possible agreement raises doubts because of its special relationship with Russia and the problems with neighboring countries, especially Kosovo, which was formerly part of Serbia. Moreover, in Serbia itself, support for joining the union is relatively the lowest of all candidate countries in the Western Balkans – it is clear that received the support of less than 50% of Serbs. Moldova’s prospects are improved by its rather influential “lawyer” in the European Union – Romania. However, these expectations are related to the development of events in the neighboring Ukraine. As long as Russia’s expansionist ambitions in the region are not eliminated, the Kremlin will most likely try to block access to Moldova, using both the creation of the Transnistrian state and the pro-Kremlin populace. in Moldova, especially in the highly fragmented Gagauzian autonomy.

Prepared by Eduards Liniņš.