Is China’s Economy a Ticking Time Bomb? Exploring the Potential Risks and Uncertainties

Is China’s economy a ticking time bomb? I’m afraid this is a full-length drama. If you want to know the ins and outs, it will take you 10 minutes. I will start from Guangzhou.

In the 1990s, Guangzhou Railway Station was full of “blind traffic” in the countryside. After I arrived by diesel train, I went to a street and didn’t pay attention to the arcade building. Two uncles dragged a bed board and rushed to it. I turned around and looked. A young girl was lying on it. Although her face was beautiful, it was obvious that she was already a corpse. The people next to him chirped and said loudly, “It’s another blind stream dragged out of the train, maybe it’s sick and can’t be cured…”

Many, many years later, today I took the high-speed rail to Guangzhou South Railway Station, and then transferred to the subway to Zhujiang New Town. There is a stretch of underground shopping malls under several Grade A office buildings. I saw many takeaways in yellow uniforms, resting , Looking at the mobile phone, is this the legendary college student who can’t find a job? Is it the former executive who was reworked upstairs when he was laid off at the age of 35? I don’t know, I haven’t talked to them. But I saw more migrant workers commuting through the subway.

Looking at the city along the high-speed rail, many housing estates have sprung up. Have they been completed yet? Can it be sold? If I were a Western reporter, the scene would be enough for me to write an article comparable to the Wall Street Journal’s August 22 article “China’s 40-year Economic Boom Comes to an End, What’s Next?” > long article, the key point: “This is the end of a long (China) era”. Yeah?

I personally went to Shunde, a place where real estate is popular, in Country Garden, and I met with a small boss who recently opened three ground-floor shops in the Fenghuangwan community and is engaged in the decoration industry. He used to work as a real estate agent for more than ten years, which is not easy to do, but he has enough industry knowledge, connections and funds to allow him to start a new business. At present, he neither talks about money. He commented on the economy casually, but he was so tight on his 25-year-old son that he “hangs on to play all day long” and told him to get married quickly. In any case, according to an analysis article in the New York Times last week, experts have a very different impression of China. “The housing crisis is spiraling out of control … it threatens the wider economy and undermines consumer, business and investor confidence. So far, China’s traditionally hands-on policymakers have done little to ease people’s anxieties. And it seems determined to reduce the country’s economy’s reliance on real estate.”

I have few books, and I have never been to the United States where the mortgage crisis just broke out in 2007. I don’t know, if the real estate explodes and there is no salvation, the bosses in the “nuclear explosion” areas of real estate will be as calm as my friend Have money left?”

The hotel I stayed in was opposite the Guangzhou Library. There was a heavy thunderstorm in the morning, so I took shelter in the library and picked up a few guides and comments on Marx’s “Das Kapital” to read. Volume III discusses the crises of capitalism, as Marx sees it: Capitalism is an evolving system of competitive accumulation with periodic economic crises. In short, “Go out, pay in advance.” In the past, China used capitalism to promote the real estate market to support local construction. As a result, “evolution” not only produced economic effects, but also accumulated a “cyclical” crisis. However, Chinese-style modernization is to solve the problems raised by Marx more than 150 years ago (there is a special area in the underground lobby of Guangzhou Library to display Chinese-style modernization books).

The West has neither solved the crisis of capitalism, but also continues to create unfair social distribution. It only solves the interests of “too big to fail” capitalists. The gap between rich and poor is infinitely widening. The United States is the best portrayal. However, Biden ignored the problems in the United States, and instead publicly pointed out that China is the “time bomb” of the world. Why? If you have watched “Peter Pan”, you know that Captain Hook is very sensitive to the sound of “tick tick tick” – in 2008, the financial tsunami that swallowed Wall Street America’s hand and pocket watch was Biden The most frightened crocodile—tick, tick, it’s not a crocodile, it’s a ticking time bomb! It’s Biden’s dark humor, and possibly psychosis. In short, Biden did it best, saying that the problem of the United States is a problem of China.

Huang Binghua

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2023-08-26 07:30:07