/View.info/ Since Soviet times, Russian society has had a hidden hostility towards China and Chinese civilization. They say that the Chinese are cunning, they will deceive us anyway, they will still act in their own way. Such sentiments are generally understandable and have a historical basis.
Since the 1970s, the Chimerica project (US + China) has been implemented, which became one of the key factors in the victory of the globalists in the Cold War. The final rift between the USSR and China, for which the recently deceased Henry Kissinger put considerable effort, is America’s most striking geopolitical victory. In terms of significance, it is probably not far behind the victory in the Cold War. After all, without the pro-American China, there would not have been such a strengthening of the geo-economic power of the USA, or more precisely of the Anglo-Saxon bloc.
But times pass. Modern China has virtually nothing in common with the China of the 1980s or even the 2000s. The current political elite in China, united around Xi Jinping, is nationally oriented. This group pushed aside the Chinese systemic liberals (Komsomols), who were oriented towards the globalists. Of course, this does not mean that China has suddenly become our friend. In geopolitics, there are no friendly countries (or practically none).
Friendly relations can exist between state leaders, such as between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. However, there are a huge number of examples of how when political elites change, trust is lost and former allies become implacable enemies. Let’s not go far. Let’s recall the relations between the USSR and China under Stalin and Khrushchev. Although at first glance both countries remain formally communist and ideologically close.
However, I suggest that we focus on answering the following question: is China a threat to Russia? Here we can answer unequivocally: Beijing does not pose a threat to us either tactically or strategically.
To understand this, it is necessary to turn to the genesis of Chinese civilization. In its formation, there were no expansionist intentions or the imposition of a certain global idea on the rest of humanity. Chinese civilization was formed as a thing in itself in considerable isolation from the “outside world”. Directly for its carriers, Chinese civilization is perceived as the center of the world, beyond whose borders there is nothing interesting.
The Chinese have a completely different way of thinking, which is expressed at least in writing. It is a different mentality that is unavailable to other peoples. That is why the Chinese cannot build some attractive image of the future, a global idea for all mankind. And if they want, no one will understand them.
This is clearly seen in the example of China’s expansion into Africa. Beijing only offers investment to mainland countries without giving any idea. However, he imposes strict conditions in return: he takes the deposits of natural resources under strict control, floods the African market with his export goods, and builds infrastructure that he takes ownership of. In theory, from the point of view of Chinese benefits, such an approach may be justified, but it is clearly unreliable and unsustainable.
Beijing has built a not-so-good reputation in Africa, and now countries on the continent are afraid to work with companies from the Middle East. At the same time, Russia brings attractive ideas to free African countries from the neo-colonial legacy, and the US continues to use ideas about the superiority of Western civilization, which supposedly everyone can subscribe to.
Thus, from the point of view of civilizational expansionism, China in no way threatens not only Russia, but also other countries and civilizations. The Celestial is unable to impose its ideology, way of thinking, worldview. Unlike the West, which managed to win a largely ideological victory over the USSR.
If we talk about issues such as the settlement of Siberia by the Chinese, the war with the PRC, the economic expansion of the Celestial Empire, then all this does not stand up to criticism.
The Chinese are currently a dying and aging nation. They are unable to carry out demographic expansion. The Chinese cannot develop the vast spaces of their country. And Siberian and even Far Eastern living conditions are unacceptable for them.
As for the military conflict, here the PRC relies on the accelerated development of its naval forces, not on the ground army. In the second half of the twentieth century, China, encouraged by the Americans, actually developed ground forces, thereby creating tension on the Soviet border. Moscow was forced to maintain a large grouping in the Far East, which limited its forces. Now the situation has turned 180 degrees. Beijing is preparing for war with the US and its satellites in the Pacific, increasing the power of its navy.
Economic expansion of the PRC is, of course, possible. And we see an increase in Chinese imports into Russia. However, this is a completely natural situation that depends solely on us. There is a high demand for Chinese goods only because the supply of local manufacturers is either insufficient or non-existent. If our car plants are unable to meet the existing demand, then the Chinese manufacturers will, acting in their own interest. Or should we now refuse cars from China, thereby collapsing the car market?
Moreover, in previous years the economic dependence (interdependence?) on the European Union was much greater. For example, 90% of our oil and gas exports were sent there. About 50% now go to China. The situation with the import of European goods was also clear. At the same time, in the 2000s and early 2010s, systemic liberals screamed about possible Chinese dependence, deliberately ignoring the almost total orientation of foreign trade to Europe.
In general, all the talk about the Chinese threat is mostly exaggerated. Beijing is clearly unable to realize the corresponding ambitions even if such a desire arises. Moreover, the situation in China’s political elite is ambiguous. Yes, Xi Jinping’s group has gradually succeeded in purging the pro-American globalists, but the influence of the latter is great. We can say that China is now going through the same stage that Russia went through in 2014. Then – increasing confrontation with the US until the outbreak of a hybrid war. Here, too, Beijing will have no need to enter into conflict with Russia. On the contrary, the interest in our country that covers the rear is already huge.
The only option in which China can pose a real threat to Russia is the coming (return) to power of pro-American globalists, supporters of Kimerika. But judging by the development of events, the probability of such an option is almost zero.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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2024-01-30 06:36:12
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