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Is a turning point in the Ukraine war imminent? ISW experts see Russia facing a difficult decision. The reason for this is the fighting for Bachmut.
Bakhmut – Bakhmut gained notoriety during the Ukraine war. Once home to around 75,000 people, much of the Ukrainian city now lies in ruins. Russian and Ukrainian forces have been fighting for dominance for months.
The most recent counter-offensive by Ukraine has apparently been increasingly successful. In the meantime, experts are already saying that the fighters have taken over the “strategic initiative” from President Zelenskyj. Now, a recent report by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that the Russian command may face difficult decisions because of the fighting in Bakhmut.
Fighting for Bachmut: Counter-offensive in the Ukraine war presents Putin’s army with a difficult decision
Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has been at war in Ukraine for 18 months now. While the Russians made numerous gains in territory in the first days of the war, the course of the front is currently only shifting piecemeal – and often in favor of the Ukrainian armed forces. The region around Bachmut has been an important scene of the fighting for weeks. Not least thanks to the support of the Wagner mercenaries, Putin’s army was able to hold the conquered urban area. But: The fights are probably very lossy.
A Ukrainian soldier fires a grenade launcher at Russian positions on the front line near Bakhmut. The latest developments in the Ukraine war could put Russia under pressure. (Archive image) © Efrem Lukatsky/dpa
According to the ISW, the point could now be reached where the Russian leadership in the Ukraine war must decide whether to start withdrawing troops from southern Ukraine – or whether to take the risk that in Cherson and Luhansk due to the military operations surrounding Bakhmut significant vulnerabilities could arise. If the Russian reinforcements already sent to Bakhmut are not sufficient to maintain Russian gains in the region, a corresponding course setting could become necessary.
Ukraine war: Putin under pressure – counter-offensive calls for Russian armed forces
The Ukrainian army is now putting massive pressure on the Russian armed forces on several sections of the front. Thanks in part to western arms deliveries, the fighters are often better equipped than the Russian aggressors. Should there now be a reorganization of the troop formations within Putin’s army, this could play into the hands of the Ukrainians.
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This reasoning of the ISW is supported by the fact that several sources report attacks by Ukraine on different sectors of the front. Accordingly, on Sunday (July 1st) there were more intensive attacks in at least four places. Even if this may give the impression that the Ukrainians are aiming for a rapid advance of the offensive, according to experts there is another reason: Large-scale operations by the Ukrainian armed forces, which could lead to a rapid territorial advance, are currently likely not possible.
Counter-offensive in the Ukraine war: the situation in Bakhmut could soon deteriorate for Putin
To what extent the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Ukraine war has already reached its full potential is not yet known. The leadership around President Zelenskyj has repeatedly said that not all the armed forces are involved in the fighting. Information about the fighting in Ukraine can hardly be verified independently. Meanwhile, Russian sources claim that Vladimir Putin’s forces managed to repel Ukrainian offensives.
While both sides of the war continued to carry out limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut region over the weekend, the situation appears to be getting worse. Should the Ukrainian fighters intensify their operations, the noose could tighten for Putin’s armed forces and put them under pressure: Because the intensified attacks in southern Ukraine repeatedly demand Russia’s attention and could ultimately ensure that Putin’s army gives up a section of the front must. (febu)
2023-07-02 15:38:04
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