Results Rolling In: Ireland’s Future Hinge on Coalition Talks
Ireland’s general election is underway, and while the UK might see results in a few hours, Ireland’s road to a new government will be much longer. Counting the 174 seats across 43 constituencies is just the first step – the real drama begins when parties start negotiating coalitions.
Here are three things to watch closely as the votes are tallied:
1. The Magic Number: 88 and the Scramble for Partners
To control Ireland’s lower house of parliament, the Dáil, a party needs a majority – 88 seats. The three largest parties – Fianna Fáil (FF), Fine Gael (FG), and Sinn Féin (SF) – haven’t fielded enough candidates to reach that alone. This means they’ll be seeking partners.
The latest exit polls paint a familiar picture. FF and FG, who ruled together in the last government with the Green Party, are projected to maintain their positions as top contenders. However, they’ve vowed not to enter a coalition with left-wing Sinn Féin.
So, a FF-FG alliance looks likely – but they’ll need at least one more party or a handful of independent candidates to hit the 88-seat mark.
But here’s a twist: if Sinn Féin, led by Mary Lou McDonald, significantly outperforms their previous showing, they could be in a stronger negotiating position.
“We will demand a referendum on Irish unity if we win the election,” McDonald said during the campaign, showcasing the party’s ambition.
Could she pull off a historic win and become Ireland’s first female Taoiseach (Prime Minister)?
2. Smaller Parties: Kingmakers in the Making?
Ireland’s voting system, proportional representation by single transferable vote, tends to give smaller parties a larger voice. This election is no exception. On the left, Labour, the Social Democrats, PCs, Greens – all hover between 4% and 6% in the exit polls – plus the People Before Profit-Solidarity alliance.
On the right, there’s Sinn Fein breakaway party Aontu and several newly formed far-right groups like Independent Ireland, each aiming to make their mark.
At least one of these groups is likely to be influential in forming the next government, bridging the gap for either FF/FG or a potential Sinn Féin-led coalition.
3. Independents: Where the Power Lies
Ireland’s political landscape is unique because it has a high number of independent candidates.
According to the exit poll, independents are poised to claim a weighty 14.6% of the vote – translating to a potentially significant number of seats.
In 2020, independents snagged 19 seats with 12.2% of the vote, proving their influence in shaping the government. So as coalition talks unfold, parties will be looking for key alliances, and independents may hold the decisive voice.
Back in 2016, nine independents were part of a Fine Gael-led minority government, with three even securing ministerial positions. This election could see history repeat itself.
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