The search for missing persons, the rescue of shipwrecked people and the safety of the sea: These are the goals and exercise contents of the joint naval maneuvers of Russia, China and Iran, which, according to Moscow, are to be held in the northern part of the Indian Ocean these days.
As early as December 2019, the three countries had a joint maneuver in the Indian Ocean and in the Gulf of Oman (Item photo) carried out. In the late summer of that year, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its ally, the USA, rose threateningly in the Gulf. This was expressed in the so-called “tanker crisis” and the shock attack by the Yemeni Houthi group using drones on Saudi refinery facilities.
As a result, an international alliance, the so-called “Task Force Sentinel”, was formed under the leadership of the USA. Their task: to secure the Persian Gulf. This did not include China, Russia and Iran, who were using their own joint naval maneuvers to protect their security interests in the area.
Chinese marines entering the Iranian port of Tschahbahar in 2019
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Regional tensions subsided
The current maneuver is taking place in a less threatening situation than a year ago, says Asian scientist Christian Wirth from the Hamburg GIGA Institute. He refers to an almost simultaneous maritime event with far more participants, and incidentally also Iranian-Chinese-Russian participation: “Another sea maneuver has been taking place since Thursday under the leadership of Pakistan, with a total of 46 states, including the USA and NATO – Forces, but also China, Russia and Iran. Compared to that, the trio’s maneuver is rather modest. “
It is conceivable that the three states wanted to show their presence again separately, also in the direction of the new US government. “But China in particular is rather cautious about the new government in Washington. Beijing is not following Tehran’s course,” says Christian Wirth from the GIGA Institute.
Russian frigate in the Gulf of Oman 2019
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Tehran’s search for a new world order
Indeed, Iran is likely to have higher expectations in its relations with both China and Russia than vice versa. In addition to hoping for trade and investment to stimulate the economy, which is suffering from the US sanctions, the government in Tehran is concerned with ideological and geo-political concerns. Since the revolutionary year 1979, Iran has rejected the international balance of power – all the more so since it has been largely dominated by the USA since the collapse of what was then the USSR in 1990.
The Iranian government is therefore looking with great interest to China, which is preparing to become the second global leading power. “The Iranian leadership sees the economic rise of revisionist actors as an opportunity to permanently change the global power structure and thereby pave the way for a new order,” writes Azadeh Zamirirad from the Berlin Foundation for Science and Politics (SWP). “It welcomes global economic change, in the course of which economic power is shifting from west to east, particularly to Asia.”
Still only a spectator: Rohani will be welcomed by Vladimir Putin at the regional summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Qingdao in 2018
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Disappointed Iranian hopes
However, so far neither the political nor the economic hopes of Tehran have been fulfilled. In numerous resolutions in the UN Security Council, Iran was unable to rely on the diplomatic backing of Russia or China. Iran and China signed a cooperation agreement last year. But no concrete steps have yet been taken. Iran had hoped in this way to counteract the economic pressure caused by the US sanctions. But under pressure from the US, Beijing also cut its trade relations with Iran significantly.
Even militarily, Iran cannot count on unconditional support from its new partners. In Syria, where Iran and Russia once cooperated closely with one another militarily, the two countries are now going their own way. And China also keeps its distance when in doubt. Since 2008, Tehran has been trying in vain to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional alliance under the leadership of China that primarily serves to cooperate in the fight against terrorism. In addition to the Central Asian countries, it includes Russia, but also the two rival powers Pakistan and India. Iran only has observer status. The reason is obvious: Iran’s enemies are not necessarily China’s enemies.
China’s strategic course is difficult to assess, even for Tehran
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Symbolic affirmation
The trilateral sea maneuver in the Indian Ocean does not mean that Iran will be upgraded by its partner of choice: “It is more about questions of safety at sea than a purely military exercise. It is not certain whether Russia and China will embark on another kind of maneuver “says Christian Wirth from the GIGA Institute. “It is very easy to imagine that they would not have accepted this out of concern about their relationship with the USA. It seems more as if both Russia and China wanted to reinforce their relations with Iran through the maneuver rather symbolically.”
In principle, China will be cautious about Iran, according to an analysis by the magazine “Foreign Policy”. China does not intend to generally side with Tehran in the rivalries in the Middle East. “In view of Beijing’s distant stance, long-term and close military cooperation with Iran seems unlikely.”
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